Thursday, March 12, 2009

What awaits in the Quarter-Finals?

How will the bastard fix this one?

Now that the CL Round of 16 is over and the dust has settled, we're ready for whatever's next. Platini can't have been happy that all 4 teams from that league he hates have made it through to the next round, which now gives him a week or two to figure out how to rig the draw.

We have a few ideas of our own after the jump. Who do you think will end up playing who?

Not surprisingly, we're all kinda envisioning some all-English clashes. Despite several efforts to figure out probabilities of 2 all-English QFs or no all-English QFs, I don't think we figured it out, so give us your best math professor impersonation in the comments. Sorry. We're just better at crass jokes.

Precious Roy:
Barca v. Porto
Bayern v. Villareal
Arsenal v. Chelsea (fixed)
Liverpool v. United (fixed)

Not bad. Entertainment with the Rafa/Fergie showdown, a London derby is always nice for ratings, while ze Germans get a soft draw and Barca get another plaything to bat around before advancing.

United v Porto
Barca v. Bayern
Arsenal v. Liverpool
Villareal v. Chelsea

Far more cynical, although the odds of United and Spartak getting the soft draw is rather high. Happens all the fucking time, oh, and with a Gooner/Scouse tilt, we'd be able to spend the week prior arguing over 500+ emails about the games. Get in.

The Fan's Attic:
United v. Bayern
Chelsea v. Arsenal
Liverpool v. Porto
Villareal v. Barca

Magic! A soft draw for the Scouse, United and Arsenal both mired in tough games, and a little La Liga reunion for the remaining Spaniards. The scoreboards shall all be festooned with 1s and 0s.

Barca v. Porto
Bayern v. Villareal
Arsenal v. United
Liverpool v. Chelsea

The Blues fan envisions another go-round of the LFC/CFC bullshit that's bored the masses the last 4 years running. Meanwhile, Arsenal kiss goodbye to their CL hopes, and the other two promise to be walkovers.

Arsenal v. Bayern
Chelsea v. Liverpool
United v. Villareal
Barca v. Porto

Fergie would shit his pants at this draw. They love running the score up on Villareal, while all their biggest competition will invariably scrap the other matches to death, leaving him to defeat the pallid remains. HOPE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN.

Bayern v. Liverpool
Chelsea v. Villareal
Porto v. Barcelona
United v. Arsenal

This outcome would make Georger's head explode. Who would he root for?

The NY Kid:
Arsenal v. Porto
Chelsea v. Liverpool
United v. Bayern
Barcelona v. Villareal

Christ, can everyone stop predicting Chelsea/Liverpool? Oh, and it figures he gives his team the easiest draw.

Lingering Bursitis:
Chelsea v. LFC
Arsenal v. Barcelona
Porto v. Bayern
United v. Villareal

Doomsday. The Arse/Barca would be good for a few goals (reckon Arsenal would win that one, ultimately), the Germans are safe, United are safe, and I get to relive my recurring nightmare of John Arne Riise and his awful, awful header.

The Likely Lad
Arsenal v. Chelsea
Man. U. v. Bayern
Liverpool v. Villareal
Barca v. Porto

This is more my dream draw than any real prediction. Arsenal/Chelsea would be like the Iran/Iraq war, we could just root for carnage. The Man. U. matchup with Bayern would be fun a)cos either Man U. or the krauts would be knocked out and b)cos we'll get to see all the old school footage from the 99 CL final. Liverpool will dickstomp Villareal, allowing me to crow on about how the Rojos should just pack up and play their league ball in Spain. And finally, I want Barca to win this bitch, and while Porto are no walkovers, I think it's a good matchup. Fin.

Thoughts from y'all? The commenter who gets the most correct will win something. A soccer book or somethin'.


The NY Kid said...

Oh, and it figures he gives his team the easiest draw.

Hey, it's not my fault that I figured out I should just pay off Platini.

WhiteSpeedReceiver said...

I predicted Ian's draw last night, just because we all know that Liverpool and Chelsea are going to face off, and I'm a blatent United homer.

Spectator said...

My favorite UF posts are the ones that involved absolutely zero percent brainpower -- guess the odds of a random event! That said, we all expended vast amounts of gray matter last trying to figure out the odds of two England teams getting paired up. Despite having at least one doctorate amongst us, I still don't think we calculated it accurately. (My excuse is that I took stats a million years ago, although I proudly made it through all of this book last year!)

hockalees said...

This prediction was selected via drawing lots, which means it is less likely to happen in real life because there is no randomness to this process.

Arsenal v. Barcelona
Villareal v. Man Utd
Chelsea v. FC Porto
Liverpool v. Bayern Munich

Spectator said...

Oh and yes this also assumes that the event in question really is random and that Platini won't be employing Patrick Ewing-esque frozen ping pong balls.

hockalees said...

no randomness to this process

What I meant to say is to the ACTUAL selection process. I do not believe it is left to chance.

The NY Kid said...

I'm pretty sure that I got the odds of 1 "All-England" match correct at 37.5%.

But fuck me if I could do the other 2.

Ă¼75 said...

I'm sticking with my figures of 43% for one all-England match and 8.6% for two all-England matches.

The Likely Lad said...

we actually HAVE narrowed it down right here. i mean, what are the odds any of us got it exactly right? slim to none. so if none of the matchups (taken entire) listed here are going to happen, we now have a better idea of the true results. Autoglass, you MIT grad, tell them I'm right.

Keith said...

Villareal v. Arsenal
Man. U. v. Bayern
Porto v. Chelsea
Barca v. Liverpool

no all-England matches, and only one hosted in England. Because Platini loves the EPL so very, very much

strong like bull smart like tractor said...

ManU - Villareal
Porto - Barca
Bayern - Atletico Mersey
Chelsea - Arsenal

It's more or less inevitable that we'll get Chelsea-Liverpool ad nauseam, though. Now with even LESS fun for everyone...

Mike Georger said...

Jesus god I thought we were free of any United commentators. You don't get to have fun, you're the fucking devil.

That said, United are clearly drawing Villareal and Arsenal will be playing Liverpool again. As for the rest, who fucking cares.

Joep Smeets said...

"(reckon Arsenal would win that one, ultimately)"

there is no way this Arsenal team beat this Barca.

im thinking

Arsenal - Bayern
Barca - Chelsea
Porto - Man U
Villarreal - pool

and I love this blog to bits, but out with all the EPL teams :p

The NY Kid said...

Honestly, I think that unless we draw Porto or Villareal, the Arse are probably not advancing

Kevin said...

Barca - Chelsea
Arsenal - Man U
Bayern - Porto
Liverpool - Villareal

I predicted correctly only 1 of the 8 matches last round, so none of these matches will occur.

Mike Georger said...

Shocking, Phillip Degen hurt in his first game back from a three month lay off. Not sure how free signings can be a bust, but holy fuck this guy is pushing it.

Precious Roy said...

Not so sure Joep.

Valdes is a sieve and the defense has proved to be vulnerable if you go right at them.

Sure, they score goals, but with Eduardo, RvP, and probably Adebayor, the Arse should be able to score as well.

Don't like the idea of stopping Messi, Eto'o, but I don't see Barca as I did a couple of weeks ago.

Joep Smeets said...

Roy, there's one enormous difference between Barca now and a couple of weeks ago. It's not very tall and very possibly a vampire.

GeneralGametime said...

I recreated the actual draw since I am sitting in a hotel room and have nothing better to do. I tried this for the round of 16 and got none right, so take it for what you will.


The only upshot of this would be at least we lose one of either ManU or Chelsea. Then again, I don't think my Gunners would make it through.

Precious Roy said...

No problem Joep, just make sure Arsenal some how wrangle an midday kick off.

bfriel0120 said...

Not that you care by now, but I figured the breakdown of all-English matchup probabilities to be as follows (by shuffling the teams into matchups and reiterating that process 10,000 times):

0 all-English matches = 23.1%
1 all-English match = 68.3%
2 all-English matches = 8.6%

This is assuming the draw is random, which is of course not the case. So, I'm calling it as:


Teeknuts said...

My scientific, drawn out of a hat* results:

Porto-Man U

Wow, that's just about the worst draw I could have imagined.

*no hats were actually involved in the draw

jjf3 said...

Nothing more than a random guess supported by a belief that all of these things are rigged:


Now, if this goes anything like the last 16, I'll read the announced match-ups and they will ALL sound just like what I predicted...except my memory will be shite...