January 1st means only one thing around here: the start of the January transfer window! It’s like Christmas, Hanukkah and your birthday all wrapped up in one!
Looking ahead to the end of January, the British press's rumor pages will have managed to link every single player with a move to every single team. But the press isn't really to blame. They’re just catering to fans who are desperate for any sign that their team will be improved for the second half of the season.
In our own amateurish way, after the jump is a little run down of what yours truly thinks might actually happen in the English Premier League (suck it, Barclay’s!). Please don’t accuse me of pretending to have any special insight. I'm just making stuff up like the professional journos do.
Santa Cruz is unhappy, hasn’t been scoring goals this season, and the Big Fat Walrus could use some added cash to help Blackburn avoid relegation. Man City has There Will Be Blood-style oil-laden billions of cash to spend, even if Mark Hughes is warning that they actually won't be spending money like the proverbial drunken sailors (nice try convincing anyone one of that). As the BBC noted, Citeh have now set their sights slightly lower than Kaka, Torres and Buffon. Santa Cruz seems about right, especially with Jo stuttering badly. This one might seem fait accompli, but the gods of the transfer market are fickle, so we are going no higher than 75%.
A mighty cheer went up from the Gooner masses when the always-reliable Guardian reported that Arsenal are interested in signing Arteta. As the Arseblog explains far better than I could, Arteta fits the bill for what Arsenal need most desperately at the moment: an experienced midfielder with a great workrate who can stabilize the team while Fabregas is recuperating and can also play beside him down the road. That said, the question is whether Everton would sell, which really means whether Arteta will demand the move. The upside is an increased wage and Champion’s League play, and yes he can play this season (Rules 17.17 and 17.18). Moyes should be able to cover up for Arteta’s absence with some spackle and a couple 2-million-pound replacements, and could then use the extra cash on a badly needed striker. However, Arteta might choose loyalty to Everton above all else, and might figure that with Everton he’ll at least get UEFA Cup competition and the continued loving adoration of the supporters. This one gets a very non-committal 50%.
Poor Wigan, who in American terms are the quintessential small market team. They have a fantastic track record of bringing in talent, even if that talent is often in the form of much-traveled castoffs. And they have absolutely no ability to keep the players who develop into solid contributors. In many ways, it’s a tribute to Wigan’s management that they’ve remained viable in the Premiership for as long as they have when their stadium routinely draws no more than 18,000 attendees and most players available on the transfer market have no interest in joining the Latics. So now you have 50-year-old Emile Heskey, who has occasionally played himself back into international contention, who much like the Costello to a team's Abbott can be paired up to do a lot of the physical work up front, and who is out of a contract this summer and sure to leave for nothing. So, the chances of his departure in January are 100%. As for where, I'd reckon 30% to Aston Villa, who are in need of strengthening if they're serious about contending for Champion's League, 35% to Liverpool, who are in need of strengthening if they're serious about winning the Premiership, and 20% Spurs, especially if they don't land Defoe (see below). And yeah, I've left myself 15% for Heskey going somewhere else. It's called "hedging!"
This one has been talked about so much, it has to happen, right? Right?? Well, maybe. Defoe would return to Spurs after a pretty disappointing spell with Portsmouth, and would return to 'Arry's tutelage, who arguably did a decent job of getting Defoe to play up to his potential. The biggest hindrance appears to be Pompey's insistence on a large cash windfall, which according to the Independent would include wiping out the 7 million quid still owed plus a wheelbarrow full of cash. So, I rate this one at 35%. It just seems too cute and too perfect, and hence one of those deals that are destined to fall through.
West Ham is royally fuxxored (I know, but we're trying to keep it clean around here). Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson has lost quadrillions thanks to the collapse of Iceland's economy, and they and they still have l'affair de Tevez floating around. And so, West Ham appear to be a selling club, despite Gianfranco Zola's best efforts to the contrary. The question is just how many first team players will find the exit door... Bellamy, Parker, Upson, Behrami and Green have all tipped. I'd say there is a 40% chance of at least three starters leaving, and 66% of at least two starters leaving. Any more than that and West Ham risk losing whatever modicum of respectability and stability they might have, as well as losing Zola. I wouldn't be surprised if Bellamy ends up staying through the end of the season, with Upson and Parker the likeliest pair to leave.
And I'm surely leaving out lots more, such as Keano going back to Spurs... so please have your say in the ol' comments
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
EPL January Tranfser Window Oddsmaker
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Transfer Market Irritations
Thanks to the idiot press back home, the papers are flooded with every possible transfer rumour under the sun. Every day, we get more news about so-and-so to Big Club FC, or the aging hero meekly accepting a small-ball bid to move to a small-town franchise. Even Jesus Christ himself is on the move, leaving heaven to ply his trade at FC Porto on a 2-year deal.
Bad jokes aside, there are a few players whose names are appearing far too much, and it has to stop. At this point, all quality and calibre aside, I couldn't care less where they play next year as their sagas have become so protracted that you just wish the season began tomorrow and that we could enjoy 3 months with silence on the transfer front.
So who are these oiks that are overpopulating the world's sports pages with will-they, won't-they?
5. Anything involving Spurs Yep, I'm sick of all the rumours involving Spurs. I could single out just one -- the Berbatov-to-Man U break, the Robbie Keane-to-Liverpool story, or how they've chased several players of interest, only to have them all publicly say they're not interested. Rafael van der Vaart said he'd rather stay in Hamburg (which speaks volumes, really), Capel wasn't interested either, they were never in with a sniff of Podolski, but they're labouring on. Granted, they have made big signings of Modric and Geovanni, but honestly, they're being linked with just about anyone and everyone at the moment, and it's torturous to digest. Bentley is the latest apple of their eye, and meanwhile, we sit and sigh, waiting for August. 4. Emmanuel Adebayor Another one I'm sick of. The constant flirtation between his manager and AC Milan is becoming so indecent, it could almost be considered pornographic and unsuitable for consumption. There's also Adebayor's wonderful gift for PR, whereby he said publicly that he wants to remain at Arsenal during a press conference, only to go backstage and tell a Sky Sports employee that he's looking at all options including a dream trip to Milan. The broth is soured further by the constant fluctuation of his value, with his price ranging from 15 to 25 million and all points in-between, not to mention his club that's looking to offload more dead weight than the two numbskulls in Weekend at Bernie's. The Togolese striker will make a club very happy indeed; it just remains to be seen exactly which one. 3. Ronaldinho The bucktoothed Brazilian should really be higher on the list, but the homeland contempt brewing in the top 2 spots has consigned him to third, which is coincidentally a position in the league that his hungriest suitors, Manchester City, could never dream of achieving. We've seen pictures of fat Ronnie all over the web, and yet Trashcan Sinatra is still wetting himself over the prospect of hooking the long-haired midfielder to come play at Eastlands. The price seems high, and pundits are advising teams to look elsewhere, but he's still a marketable name, and that means everything nowadays. In addition to Man City, there's always AC Milan, who crop up so frequently in transfer rumours that I might dub them the Italian Tottenham due to their predilection for hijacking or voicing interest in any player that is for sale. Please, make it end. Ronnie's agent needs to be Old Yeller'd, lest we go insane with all the noise. 2. Gareth Barry. Of course he's on the list! Was there any doubt? The saga (that I detailed last week as best I could) is bordering on Monty Python-esque farce as neither Liverpool nor Villa show any signs of being able to compromise. Today's fresh coat of paint came in the form of Arsenal, who apparently expressed interest to O'Neill, who promptly then told The Sun in the hopes of scaring open the Anfield pursestrings. Savvy on his part, yes, but entirely boring for the rest of us. Barry's fate is essentially sealed away from Villa Park due to his comments in the media about wanting better football (and I'm still not convinced that my Reds could even give him that), but the question remains as to where he'll end up. There is an inevitability about a move to Anfield eventually being ironed out, but it would be magic if this could happen soon. It might spare us all the added grief of the merry-go-round. 1. Cristiano Ronaldo. At last, something he'll finish first in on his own merits! Despite roundly failing at Euro '08, he enjoyed the spotlight that Spain should have had by stringing the media on for two straight weeks with veiled comments and entendres that whipped the writers into a fucking agonizing frenzy. Talk of Real Madrid being a dream move immediately woke Calderon from his coke-and-sunshine binge, and the world hasn't been the same since. The petulant one is facing a three-month layoff after some ankle surgery, but it hasn't dampened the speculation much. For the love of all that is holy, I wish it had.
"Of course [I'm staying put], I have three more years contract so, no matter what, I have to stay. I’m staying at Arsenal."
Then, later on June 27th:"I have a lot of big clubs trying to buy me and it is up to me and my agent, Stephane Courbis, to sit down next week and find a good solution. I am in a position that I don't know where I will be playing but that is normal. If you told me seven years ago when I was playing in Togo without football boots that I would have a choice of playing in Spain or Italy it would seem crazy."
You can't teach media management like that.
---
Am I missing any? Other candidates for most annoying transfer talk?
Friday, June 6, 2008
Euro Speculation
Euro 2008 kicks off tomorrow and I'm sure these two...fellas?...will be ubiquitous over the next 3 weeks. So, UF is going on record with its wildly inaccurate predictions. Although, it seems many of us have a serious mancrush on Fernando Torres.
Don't forget to join the UF Euro '08 Pick 'Em group -- "UF Callups".
After the jump our predictions. Feel free to predict away in the comments.
Spectator
Group A winners: Portugal and Czech Republic
Group B winners: Germany and Croatia
Group C winners: Italy and France
Group D winners: Spain and Russia
Finalists: Germany and Spain
Winner: Germany
Golden Boot: Torres
Golden Gloves: Cech
Player of the Tournament: Podolski
Darkhorse Team: Russia
Biggest Controversy of the Tournament: Someone getting a penalty when they TOTALLY shouldn't have.
ΓΌ75
Group A: 1. Portugal 2. Czech Republic
Group B: 1. Germany 2. Poland
Group C: 1. France 2. Netherlands
Group D: 1. Spain 2. Greece
Finalists: Poland v. Spain
Winner: Spain
Golden Boot: Torres
Golden Gloves: Cech
PotT: Fabregas
Darkhorse Team: Switzerland
Controversy: Russia will need a Spain result against Greece to
advance. Greece will dominate the game and win easily. Foul play will be cried.
Being Sven
Group A winners: Portugal, then Czech Rep
Group B winners: Germany, then Croatia
Group C winners: Italy, then the Netherregions
Group D winners: Spain, then Sweden
Finalists: Germany & Italy
Winner: Germany
Golden Boot: Klose
Golden Gloves: Buffon
Player of the Tournament: Ballack (*laugh* no, seriously... or at least, half-seriously)
Darkhorse Team: Croatia
Biggest Controversy of the Tournament: Karma rears its ugly head when C Ronaldo gets sent off after an opponent dupes the ref... costing his team dearly, he gives the crowd a ill-advised salute as he departs, then fucks off to Madrid... just like Goldenballs. (as an aside, I'd LOVE to see the Glazers stick by their guns and let that motherfucking cunt rot in the reserves after he demands a move to Spain... unlikely, but...)
The NY Kid
Group A: Czech (1), Portugal (2)
Group B: Germany (1), Croatia (2)
Group C: France (1), Italy (2) - did you really think I would pick anything else?
Group D: Spain (1), Sweden (2)
Finalists: Germany - France
Winner: France
Golden Boot: Karim Benzema
Golden Gloves: Lehmann (no, seriously, I think he's out to prove something to Wenger)
Player of the Tournament: Ribery
Darkhorse Team: Spain
Biggest Controversy: The rampant Nazism present at the Germany-Croatia match on June 12th leads FIFA to impose record fines on the governing footballing agencies of both countries.
Lingering Bursitis
Group A: Portugal and Turkey
Group B: Germany and Croatia
Group C: Italy and Netherlands
Group D: Spain and Greece
Final: Spain v. Germany
Winner: Spain, 2-1
Golden Boot: Fernando Torres, SPA
Golden Gloves: Rustu Recber, TUR
Player of the Tournament: C. Ronaldo, POR
Darkhorse Team: Turkey [they're set up like Greece. Their national team is pretty much taken from 2 domestic league teams, so they all play together an awful lot. Hard-working, they have the on-field chemistry.... could be a shocker here]
Biggest Controversy: the fact that this damn tournament is in Switzerland/Austria in the first place
Precious Roy
Group A: Portugal, Czech
Group B: Germany, Croatia
Group C: Italy, France
Group D: Spain, Russia
Final: Italy v. Croatia
Winner: Italy 1-1 (5-3 on PKs)
Golden Boot: Cristiano Ronaldo
Golden Gloves: Gigi Buffon
Player of the Tournament: C. Ronaldo
Darkhorse Team: Is Croatia a darkhorse? Maybe Russia makes a run into the semis behind Guus.
Biggest Controversy: Millions of kegs of beer go spoiled as pre-tourney orders made 7 months in advance were overly large on the assumption that hoards of drunken British louts would be in Austria and Switzerland.
The Fan's Attic
Group A: Czech, Portugal
Group B: Germany, Croatia
Group C: Netherlands, France
Group D: Spain, Russia
Final: Germany v. Spain
Winner: Spain
Golden Boot: Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
Golden Gloves: Iker Casillas
Player of the Tournament: Torres
Darkhorse Team: Russia...solely because of Guus Hiddink.
Biggest Controversy: Antonio Cassano tackles a ref in the opening match.
Ian
Group A: Czech, Portugal
Group B: Germany, Poland
Group C: Italy, Dutch
Group D: Spain, Russia
Final: Portugal-Germany
Winner: Zie Germans 0-0 (5-4 on pks)
Golden Boot: Luca Toni
Golden Gloves (they really give this out?): Van der Saar
POT: C Ronny Ron Ron
Darkhorse: The Dutch, upsetting Les Blues and getting out of their group.
Biggest controversy: allegations of ref bribery and teams throwing games
Posts
