Guest Post: Eladio looks ahead to next season's Champions League

The rules, they are a-changing. With CL qualification and organization undergoing a summer reshuffle, it's going to take a genius to figure it all out. Well, we couldn't get one of those, but we could secure longtime UF commenter Eladio to do all the heavy lifting.

The first two-thirds of the 2008-09 EPL (Suck it, Barclays) season had many storylines, but the one that kept my interest for most of the time was the battle for 4th place between Aston Villa and Arsenal. (By the way, did anyone see this video of Mr. Tom Hanks on Jonathon Ross’s show, explaining why he’s an Aston Villa supporter? Also – I think he said “723 crack footballers”, not “crap footballers”. Anyway, it remains to be seen if Keith loves him or not. Also, his impersonation of fans who tell him “Forrest Gump” is their favorite movie – hilarious.)

Once Villa went into their March swoon and Arsenal starting showing signs of a backline (albeit against 723 crap footballers), the Gunners locked up 4th place and everyone seemed content for a month or so.

But then, in an effort to boost ratings for meaningless, late-season matches, TV pundits started bringing up the battle for 3rd place between Arsenal and Chelsea, mentioning over and over again that the new UEFA Champions League qualifying rules are changing drastically for 2009-10, and that 4th place will no longer be the cakewalk it has been for non-automatic qualifiers in years past. I paid little attention to the white noise, as I’ve been conditioned year after year to care only about 4th place.

But now that the 3rd place is out of reach and the silly season is almost upon us, I thought I’d look into these new UEFA rules and see what the difference between 3rd and 4th really means.

Before looking in to 2009-10, I wanted to revisit the old rules for getting in to the CL. Up to last year, places 3rd and 4th in England went directly into the 3rd (and last) round of Qualifying for the CL. This qualifying round included all teams that went through the 1st 2 qualifying rounds of the CL and those who got the free bye to the 3rd. However, once all teams got the 3rd qualifying round, UEFA seeded those teams. From a large document on the UEFA website entitled “Regulations of the UEFA Champions League 2008/09”, section 8.0.1, they state:

The UEFA administration seeds clubs for the qualifying rounds and the group stage in the UEFA Champions League, in accordance with the club coefficient rankings established at the beginning of the season and with the principles set by the Club Competitions Committee. If, for any unforeseen reason, any of the participants in such rounds are not known at the time of the draw, the coefficient of the club with the higher coefficient of the twoclubs involved in an undecided tie will be used for the purposes of the draw.

Because of this seeding, the 3rd and 4th placed teams in England (and the other major leagues) were not in huge danger of facing a tough squad.

In August 2008, 3rd place Arsenal faced Twente Enschede, the 4th place club from the Eredivisie, and 4th place Liverpool faced Standard Liege, the Champions from the Belgian First Division. Because of the seeding neither team was in danger of facing other teams in the 3rd round of Qualifying -- such as Atletico Madrid, Juventus, or Barcelona – so they had an easy go of it. (Oh right – Liverpool needed a Kuyt goal in the 118th minute of the 2nd leg to get through... oops.)

Nevertheless, the 3rd and 4th place teams from England were not in tough straits in getting to the group stages.

With the 2009-10 CL season, the rules of qualification have changed. (The UEFA website has a good outline of who gets in by each country’s FA association here)

First off, there are 22 automatic qualifiers to the group stages: 21 as outlined on the page above, plus the Title Holders. Now that it’s a foregone conclusion (no, not David Brent’s band) that both ManUre and Barca are going to qualify by winning their respective leagues, I believe this means there will be another automatic group qualifier from somewhere else.

(I can’t find any information on the UEFA site as to who would move in to the group stages, but in 08-09, they had the following “provisional” comment: Scottish champions Celtic also began in the group stage as United were already qualified through after winning the English title, hence PFC Levski Sofia moved forward to the third qualifying round and Wisla Kraków and MTK Budapest were excused the initial stage.

So based on this, I’d guess that the next country down the list that doesn’t get automatically into the group stage (which happens to be Belgium) will now get an automatic entry to the group stages. But that’s just a guess.)

The other 10 qualifiers to the group stage come through preliminary qualifying this summer, but those 10 are split into 2 groups: the “Champions Path” and the “Best-Placed Path”. Each “path” (which sounds like the Cult of Platini – “Follow the path and eternal enlightenment will be revealed – but not if you speak English”) will contribute 5 teams each.

Here are the qualifying rules for each “path”, from the UEFA website:

• Champions Path
The first qualifying round comprises three two-legged ties involving the champions of the countries ranked 48 to 53 in UEFA competition. The winners of those ties progress to the second qualifying round where they are joined by the champions of the 31 countries ranked 16 to 47 (except Liechtenstein). The victorious sides from those 17 ties join the champions from the associations ranked 13 to 15 in the third qualifying round, with the winners of those ten pairings reaching the play-off round. These five play-off ties will take place on a home-and-away basis with the winners qualifying for the UEFA Champions League group stage.

• Best-placed path
The third-placed side from the sixth-ranked member association, plus the runners-up from the associations ranked 7 to 15, start the competition in the third qualifying round. The winners of these five ties progress to the play-off round, where they are joined by the fourth-placed sides from the associations ranked 1 to 3 and the third-placed teams from the associations ranked 4 and 5. The victorious teams from the five play-off ties qualify for the UEFA Champions League group stage.

What this means is that those in the Champions Path will face each other, and those in the Best-Placed Path will face each other, but never the twain shall meet (until the group stages). Arsenal will obviously be in the Best-Placed Path, and thus, I wanted to see what this might look like. Based on the criteria above, it will/could look something like this below.

(NOTE: All teams I included are based on CURRENT league standings, though some were from tables in another language that I couldn’t understand, so no guarantee these are correct.)

Best Placed Path, Third Qualifying round includes these 10 teams:
#6, 3rd place: Dinamo Moscow (Since the Russian League ended in November, Dinamo Moscow are confirmed here.)
#7-Romania, runner up: Unirea Urziceni
#8-Portugal, runner up: Sporting Lisbon
#9-Netherlands, runner up: Twente Enschede (McClaren alert!)
#10-Scotland, runner up: Celtic
#11-Turkey, runner up: Sivasspor
#12-Ukraine, runner up: Shakhtar Donestk
#13-Belgium, runner up: Standard Liege
#14-Greece, runner up: PAOK Salonika
#15-Czech Republic, runner up: Sparta Prague

These 10 will participate in five, 2-legged ties. These 5 winners will then join the next 5 qualifiers of the Best-Placed Path group, and these 10 go to the “Play-off Round”, with another set of 2-legged ties. These next 5 qualifiers would be:

#1-England, 4th place: Arsenal (Confirmed here.)
#2-Spain, 4th place: Valencia
#3-Italy, 4th place: Fiorentina
#4-France, 3rd place: Lyon
#5-Germany, 3rd place: Hertha Berlin

So let’s look to see how many “Danger” teams would there be that Arsenal might have to face. Of the first group of 10, I’d rate 3 of them as “Danger”: Portugal-2nd; Scotland-2nd; Greece-2nd. I would also say that ALL the other 4 clubs that advance directly to the playoff round would be classified as “Danger” as well. (One could argue about Fiorentina or Berlin; however, I would say that there’s just as good of a chance that a team like Juventus or Munich could wind up in those spots as well.)

Then I would use an assumption that only 2 of the 3 “Danger” teams from the 3rd Round make it through to the Play-off Round. (I tried to figure out the % chance that 2 of the 3 would play each other, which would automatically knock off 1 team, and then decided that even if all 3 had ties against weaker teams, there’s a chance that at least 1 of those 3 could lose – and I came up with a figure of 2.4 teams to advance, which is ridiculous as 2/5 of a team would lose anywhere around the world – I mean, Norwich has proven that this year -- so I went with two.) This means that Arsenal would be in the Play-off Round pool with 9 other clubs – 6 of whom would be classified as “Danger”. (And yes, I know the “Danger” classification makes it sound like I’m on Bush’s Homeland Security Team, but bear with me -- I’m almost done.)

All this means that Arsenal has around a 67% chance of being drawn against a tough opponent in the final play-off round for CL group stage qualification, whereas in previous years I’d say that the chance of being drawn against a tough opponent was less than 20% -- and even that might be generous.

I would wager that these new UEFA rules make the difference between finishing 3rd and 4th FAR GREATER than the difference between finishing 2nd and 3rd in past years. In fact, just look at the quality of teams that may have to play each other in late August this year: Arsenal; Valencia/Atletico Madrid; Juventus/Fiorentina; Bayern Munich/Hertha Berlin/Stuttgart; Lyon/PSG; Celtic/Rangers; Sporting Lisbon.

Considering that the vast majority of CL revenue is based on making the GROUP stages, I think the accepted wisdom that finishing 4th is the most important spot in the League Table (after winning the league and avoiding relegation, obviously) is going to have to be changed to finishing 3rd. It isn’t an easy waltz into the group stages for the 4th place club in the EPL anymore – and in some years could easily mean a contest against a side such as Inter Milan or Real Madrid.

And because these games take place in August (the playoff rounds will be completed by 8/26/09), there would still be time before the transfer window closes for a player to request/demand a transfer to another team that did make the CL group stages. (Although, this would require the player NOT to have played in the Play-off Round; otherwise they’d be cup-tied. At least, I believe so.)

Thinking back to Arsenal, might someone like Fabregas or van Persie request NOT to play in the Play-off Round (and in years past Wenger has definitely played a lesser squad in these prelim games, albeit against weaker competition) in case Arsenal is knocked out prior to the Group Stages, thus leaving them open to a transfer to a team that did qualify? Just more things to worry about during the off-season.

Platini: dreaming of paths that could potentially screw the English

Quickly, I also wanted to touch on the “Champions Path”, as I think this change also impacts the group stages. The Champions Path includes the winners of the leagues that are ranked #13 thru 53 (San Marino – GET IN!), and they all enter the competition at various stages based on their UEFA ranking. By separating out these clubs from the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers from the better country’s leagues, UEFA is ensuring that at least 5 clubs from countries with weak football leagues will be in the group stages.

Let’s just look at teams ranked 13-20 to get an idea of who they might be. (Again, based on the most recent standings, and no guarantee these are correct.)
13 – Belgium. Anderlecht
14 – Greece. Olympiacos
15 – Czech Republic. Slavia Prague
16 – Switzerland. FC Zurich
17 – Bulgaria. CSKA Sofia
18 – Norway. Rosenborg
19 – Denmark. FC Copenhagen
20 – Austria. SV Red Bull Salzburg

Now I don’t want to slag off any country’s league champions. Good on you for doing the best you could do in the league you happen to be in. But is there anyone out there who WOULDN’T rather play any of these teams instead of any of the teams I outlined above in the Best-Placed Path? I didn’t think so.

I’m sure Platini would spin these changes to say that they’re trying to open up the competition to a wider array of countries. This will definitely do that, but it’s also going to give the Champions & Runners-up of the top country’s leagues a much easier chance of advancing to the knock-out stages. They’re basically making the gap between the top and bottom of the groups wider. And in my opinion, these new rules will make the group stages less competitive, and a lot more boring (if that's even possible).

Finally, one other change to the CL schedule for 2009-10 that I found interesting.

The 1st Knockout round (after the Group Stages) will be split over 4 weeks instead of 2. In years past, these 8 ties would be played over 2 weeks, meaning that 4 games would be played on a Tuesday, and 4 on a Wednesday, and then do it again the next or 2 weeks later. Because only 1 game could be shown live, 3 games would either not be shown, or shown on tape delay. In the 2009-10 1st Knockout round, 1st leg matches will be played Feb 16, 17, 23, and 24, and the 2nd legs will be March 9, 10, 16 and 17.

This means that only 2 games will be played a day, and that 4 games will be televised live instead of just 2 – and they just doubled their TV revenue. (Although this might also mean a lot of Twente/Bordeaux and Besiktas/Rosenborg matches as well. You’ve been warned.)

So there you have it. I have no doubt that there at least 1 of the teams from the top 5 leagues in Europe who will be out of the Champions League before the group stages in the coming year, and possibly as many as 3. And then everyone will realize what I’ve come to see: 3rd place is the new 4th.

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UF Quick Throw: UEFA Not As Corrupt As We Supposed

Darren Fletcher's appeal was denied.

From UEFA's statement: "In reaching its decision, the Control and Disciplinary Body concluded (i) that the protests had not been submitted within the required 24-hour deadline of a match for filing protests – as specified in the disciplinary regulations – and (ii) that even if they had been admitted they would have been rejected as unfounded as there were no grounds for contesting the referees' original decisions."

Translation: Day late, dollar short get bent.

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Iniesta Does the Hokey Pokey

Iniesta in. Iniesta out.

That's what it's all about.

(Slow on this, but we turned the match off at 3-1).

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It's All San Andres' Fault: A Second Semi-Final Redux

Didier Drogba has placed blame for Chelsea's Champions League exit squarely on his shoulders after his failure to score at the Nou Camp when he got in alone on Victor Valdes.

Just kidding. Chelsea players are all about Øvrebø.

Here's a link dump in the fallout of Barca's extra-time leveler at Stamford Bridge yesterday. Click bonanza after the jump.


Chelsea players now saying there were "six or seven" decisions against them. Pretty sure by next week, it will be between 15 and 20.

Graham Poll counts four. Also the only person in London not selectively forgetting that Chelsea received a bad decision gift with Abidal's sending off. Webchat with Mr. Three Yellows is here.

Pique admits his handball could have been legitimately given, then tells Chelsea to fuck off because they got all the calls at the Nou Camp.

Sun says Drogba attacked ref and is facing a ban.

Drogba consoles self after loss by dating a man. Great pic of Ballack flashdancing with Øvrebø.

The ref had to be smuggled out of the country due to death threats. Stay classy football fans. (Oh, and now UEFA has put a gag order on Øvrebø to stop talking about the match).

No shit? headline on this one. We just wanted an excuse to mention Guardiola. Was his sideline sprint more Mourinho at Old Trafford in the CL, or Slaven Bilic from last summer's Euro?

Anytime it's a choice between 'conspiracy' and 'incompetence' always pick the latter, people.

Finally, we end with this nugget from England's Brave John Terry: ''I am fully behind Didier Drogba for the way he reacted. The man wants to win. You can see the passion that he played with during the game and the passion afterwards."

Clearly, EBJT wasn't paying any attention the entire management tenure of Phil Scolari when Drogba couldn't even be bothered to mail it in. Anyway, that's the crazy person that Terry is backing up top. "You're not angry, you're just pointing. 'Hey you, I know you. I know you.'"

Thanks to Sarah for another fantastic animated gif. And here are some decent bonus pics here, here, here, and here.

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CL Open Thread: Barcelona v. Chelsea

Oh Oh Leoooo-OHHH! And whoever's in Barca's central defense! OH!

When Luis Enrique speaks [in metaphorical terms about football and sexual ecstasy], people listen. He's promised the world a display of "Orgasmic" footy from his Barca squad (he coaches the reserves) today at The Bridge. Is it Delusions of Pleasure... or a top line to the magic the Catalans have in store today for Chelski and the world? Present party is hoping Leo and Sammy spray Cech wet with attacking grandeur, but the more reasonable sorts among us (looking... looking... they're here, I swear) have a feeling it won't cum quite so easy. Chelsea have a way of toughening up in these spots.

So here we are, just 15 minutes to kick. It's 0-0 after the first leg at the Nou Camp. A win or goal-scoring draw puts Barca through. Chelsea need to win to book their title rematch with United. And then there's always the possibility of PKs after another impotent, scoreless draw. We go flaccid at the thought.

Lineups después del salto!


First-- Michael Ballack, Nicholas Anelka, Alex, Dani Alves and Sergio Busquets are all on Darren Fletcher Alert-- one yellow and OUT for the final.

Second-- Questions! Will Thierry Henry man up and play? (Answer: NON) Who will play center back for injury and suspension-ridden Barcelona? Rafa Marquez is out with that knee injury (is it no longer even a chuckle-worthy irony that the most dangerous place on the pitch for a footballer is that spot five yards clear of other players and the ball?) and Captain Carles Puyol misses out after collecting one too many yella cards. It'll probably be Gerry Pique and Eric Abidal/Yaya Toure. (Answer: TOURE) That's my wild guess at 1.45 pm et. By the time you see this there will be an actual lineup right below...

right here...

So it goes:

For Chelsea--

Cech
Bosingwa, Alex, Terry, Cole
Essien, Ballack, Lampard, Malouda
Anelka, Drogba
Subs: Hilario, Ivanovic, Mikel, Kalou, Belletti, Mancienne, Di Santo


For visiting Barcelona--

Valdes
Alves, Abidal, Pique, Toure
Busquets, Keita, Xavi, Iniesta
Eto'o, Messi
Subs: Pinto, Caceres, Gudjohnsen, Bojan Krkic, Sylvinho, Alex Hleb, Pedro


Already y'all, we are off in a just a few minutes. Let's hope for a nut-busting second leg. (You promised, Luis!)

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CL Preview, 2nd Leg: Barcelona cometh

Frank Lampard: excited. Possibly suffering from lockjaw.

When flair and class descends on the Stamford Bridge grass, we must hope and pray it doesn't end in 0-0 again. After all, the other semi-final provided way more goals than I expected (sorry, Gooners), so it seems criminal and unfair that a match involving Barcelona, scorer of 156,413 goals this season (at least 91,673 of those provided by Lionel "God" Messi), should give us nil-nil over 90+ difficult Nou Camp minutes.

What say you, folks? How about more dumb reasons why either side might win?

LB
WHY CHELSEA WILL WIN
- Lampard/Drogba in good form
- Far better at grinding out 1-0 wins than Barca

WHY BARCA WILL WIN
- Away goals, baby! Just need one
- They have a La Liga defense... nuff said


NY Kid
WHY CHELSEA WILL WIN
1. The French tandem of Anelka and Malouda [Ed. Note: He's totally kidding]
2. Abramovich and the Russian mafia want it that way

WHY BARCA WILL WIN
1. Titi, Messi and Eto'o are unstoppable up top
2. Pep Guardiola dresses nicer than Guus Hiddink


Autoglass
WHY CHELSEA WILL WIN
1. Full squad, in form, at home vs. Puyol and Marquez out.
2. Hiddink shut them down at the Nous Camp, this hasn't been done.

WHY BARCA WILL WIN
1. Barca remindes us in Madrid that they are the rampant side in Europe this season, the first leg aside.
2. Messi, Eto'o and Titty can't be held for 180 minutes, can they?


Spectator
WHY CHELSEA WILL WIN
- Because the football gods want a soul-crushing Man U-Chelsea final

WHY BARCA WILL WIN
- Because the football gods exist


The Fan's Attic
WHY CHELSEA WILL WIN
Michael Essien

WHY BARCA WILL WIN
Xavi


Precious Roy
WHY CHELSEA WILL WIN
The Baby Jesus hates me.

WHY BARCA WILL WIN
They'll probably get some room to operate as Chelsea can't play for a goalless draw again (unless they want to put their fate on EBJT's penalty-taking foot again)

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CL Preview, 2nd Leg: now with bullet points!

Champions League.
Arsenal.
Manchester United.
Beautiful football.
Satanism.
Nicklas Bendtner.
John O'Shea.

Something has to give, right?

We all know the deal: Arsenal host the Lancastrian baby-eaters who hold a 1-0 lead from the 1st Leg (that could easily have been 4-0 were it not for the bleach-blond brilliance of Manuel Almunia between le posts). That goal, inexplicably scored by the useless Irish utility defender and aided by some shocking marking, will force Wenger to adopt a more attacking approach.

Gone must be the slow, sideways passing, replaced by vigor and attacking intent. They have to score, and sadly, their most likely source of goals, Arshavin, is cup-tied. D'oh! Cesc is already promising such changes, but will they deliver?

Meanwhile, Fergie and his irritating brood of sociopaths will continue their smug march towards trophies, probably with some alignment of Ronaldo and Rooney dossing around up front like a couple of ADHD-addled pre-teens, looking to cause trouble amid the Gunners' hobbled backline. Christ, Ferguson has such an easy job. His lineups practically pick themselves, leaving him plenty of time to harvest stem cells with his fangs and drink himself into a stupor on the sidelines in those cushy racing-style armchairs.

We thought we'd compile a brief list of reasons why either side might win, aiming of course for the kind of journalistic integrity and reality that you've come to expect from UF.

Feel free to add your own in the comments if we're missing anything particularly trenchant.

LB -
Why United Will Win
- They're United. It's what they bribe refs and the FA in order to do.
- The ref will invariably award a contentious, game-changing decision their way.
- Rooney is in excellent form.

Why Arsenal Will Win
- They have nothing else to play for, really
- Possessors of something to prove, they need to show that the cup-tied Arshavin isn't the only solid offensive option they have.
- It's at home! They do well at home

Precious Roy -
United:
- They are better.

Arsenal:
- They have a magic pixie, who while cup-tied, is still a magic pixie.

Ian -
United:
- SAF sacrifices, blows goats

Arsenal:
- Wenger is a genius, doesn't drink as much

Seriously, United really blew a chance to klll the tie by not getting more goals at OT. If the Arsenal backline can magically not get raped and Almunia has another huge game, then I think they can nick a goal or two and then who knows what happens. But realistically United are the favorites.

The Fan’s Attic -
United:
- Defensive backline is less banged up than Arsenal's.

Arsenal:
- Cesc deserves a good birthday present, one day late.


So there you have it. Don't argue with us, it's all very scientific.

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**UPDATE** Oink, Oink

Some fun from the Champions League ManU-Arsenal showdown. Now the question is whether this gent is protecting himself from swine flu or protecting everybody else.



I didn't know Luka Modric was a ManU fan.

After the jump, see if you can spot Mr. PFA Giggs in his usual spot in the stands, plus a few other entertaining photos.




Does Andrei Arshavin ever take a non-goofy photo? I think he's skipping here with his Dorothy Hamill hair.



Must have been beans in the cafeteria that day.







Carlito seems to be enjoying that one a bit too much, don't you think?

Per request, the Vidic diving header pic and an Evra nipple biting picture

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Champions League: Mind-Numbing Rubbish, Redux

Fergie unveils N'Sync 2.0

Ranty recap of last night ahead!

The Champions League can be an exciting place. Last night, it wasn't, and we must pray for none of that anti-football this afternoon.

Rafa Marquez was felled by an invisible man and will be out 10 weeks, but the really gruesome injury was suffered by us, the hapless television audience (we won't even mention the horrors witnessed by those actually at the Nou Camp). Yes, Guus Hiddink's side hushed the Catalans and backpassed with aplomb en route to a 0-0 result in which they enjoyed just 29% of possession and managed not to get anyone sent off in a game full of clumsy tackling and casual attack.

Some call it brilliant organization, others call it cynical bus-parkery. Po-tay-to, po-tah-to.

Barca, for all their offensive might, were equally to blame for their lazy, insouciant performance, leading me to think they felt like scoring a goal were their reward for simply turning up. The overdone flourishes and passing failed, and now, we hope and pray that tonight, either United or Arsenal, or both, will have the stones to shoot at goal every once in a while.


And for today/tonight:

On Arsenal's side: karma, in the shape of news that United have begun their CL victory parade preparations. The gods do love when they get to rain on a parade. What's not on the Gooner's side is good health, as they're still set to miss several key defensive players, including Gibbs, Silvestre, Clichy, Gallas etc etc etc etc etc.

For United, Fergie is toying with the thought of deploying all his strikers at once. It's a tasty thought for those who enjoy goals, although their sturm und drang could backfire as it did for the bad guy in that Robin Williams movie "Toys". If you recall from your acid-taking, bad 90s movie-watching days, the evil General Zevo had all the best toys and weapons, and yet was outdone by Williams, a blond girl, an unconvincing soldier played by LL Cool J, and his reprogrammed sea slug killing machine.

Let's hope for some similar battles tonight. My only request is this: could Arsenal save the whole "beating United at Old Trafford" thing for their imminent EPL match?

Lineups and such after the jump. Use the comments for griping about Howard Webb.


Man United v. Arsenal
-----
Man United: Van der Sar; Evra, O'Shea, Ferdinand, Vidic; Fletcher, Carrick, Anderson, Ronaldo; Rooney, Tevez.
Subs: Foster, Berbatov, Giggs, Scholes, Park, Rafael, Evans.

Arsenal: Almunia; Sagna, Toure, Sylvestre, Gibbs; Diaby, Song, Fabregas, Nasri; Walcott, Adebayor.
Subs: Fabianski, Eduardo, Denilson, Ramsey, Bendtner, Djourou, Eboue.

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Champions League Open Thread

We apologize for the lack of content today. I have a feeling it's down to anticipation of what's to come and lamentation of what was lost over the last couple of days. In hopes of atonement, I give you this.

This may or may not be Autoglass as a child.

Of course it's not, but he is the resident UFer who has a crying interest in the outcome of this two-legged tie. In the spirit of how we all cared about Norwich yesterday, I ask that you support him and carry Spartak to the CL Final. So we can all laugh at Michael Ballack when he finishes runner-up again.

Lineups after the jump.

Barcelona: Valdes, Alves, Pique, Marquez, Abidal, Toure, Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Henry, Eto'o
Subs: Jorquera, Puyol, Gudjohnsen, Bojan, Keita, Silvinho, Hleb

Spartak: Cech, Ivanovic, Terry, Alex, Bosingwa; Lampard, Mikel, Ballack, Essien, Malouda; Drogba
Subs: Hilario, Di Santo, Kalou, Belletti, Anelka, Mancienne, Stoch

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CL Liveblog: Manchester United v. Porto

If we have to explain, it's already too late
Credit to Bigus

United's war on five fronts can come to a merciful end this evening with anything less than total victory at FC Porto's Estádio do Dragão. But as ever, even when it's not about Liverpool, it's about Liverpool. The Reds supporter is in an awkward position this hour-- does he root for a bloody end to his sworn enemy's European campaign... or does he get out his wiles, and Manc crest, and pull for United to ride into Porto and slay the Hulk, thus ensuring more fixture congestion and "nightmarish rotation hell??" We already know Bad Karma Bursitis's feelings on the issue. Those are his quotes a few words back, and he was not-at-all quietly rooting for the Reds to lose, gracefully, but lose on aggregate to Chelsea yesterday.

ED'S ADDENDUM: To clarify, I absolutely did not root for my team to lose yesterday. I merely said if we did lose, I wouldn't take it as painfully as any other loss. Plus, some stuff about being healthy, focused, etc. I will root for United to win today though, simply because I wish for their tired, flagging squad to be buried under an avalanche of more fixtures. Anything to keep their focus away from the EPL.

LAD'S ADDENDUM TO ED'S ADDENDUM: Pithy, elegant, but ultimately, untrue.

Sadly, the level-headed among us know that Liverpool in 2009 is no Russia in Winter 1942. I'd say they're more like Holland in Spring 1940-- talk a big game, puff their chests a bit, but ultimately destined for quiet capitulation.

So there's the intrigue. As for the game at hand: the ball is round, the tie is square (or, more honestly, it's rhombus, tilting in Porto's direction under the weight of their two massive away goals), and we are set to watch Manc blood flow like the Mondego!!

Oh, and for the rest of our Iberian-interest crowd, I'll be sure to check in on Villareal's afternoon playdate with Uncle Arsene and his Super Adventure Club.

The madness begins... after the hop.



FC Porto XI: Helton, Sapunaru, Rolando, Alves, Cissokho, Gonzalez, Fernando, Meireles, Lopez, Hulk, Rodriguez.

Subs: Nuno, Stepanov, Guarin, Mariano Gonzalez, Costa, Madrid, Farias.

Note: Porto's lineup is unchanged from Old Trafford. However, manager Jesualdo Ferreira is banned through an old, since appealed and reduced UEFA suspension. BBC is reporting a rumor that he's not even sticking around the stadium to watch the game. Don't blame him if it's true-- better to go home, have a drink, and check the score online every 15 mins. Less stressful.

Man Utd XI: Van der Sar, O'Shea, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Anderson, Carrick, Giggs, Ronaldo, Berbatov, Rooney.

Subs: Foster, Neville, Evans, Nani, Scholes, Tevez, Macheda.

Note: Big changes for SAF. After fielding a 75% strength side in the first leg, it's Luftwaffe, Panzer divisions, etc.. all barreling toward the front.

(In London, it's a makeshift Gooner backline, with Gibbs, Silvestre, and Eboue being trusted to protect Fabianski from what are sure to be braver-than-usual-advances from the Yellow Submarine, who themselves are without Marcos Senna.)

4 mins to kickoff: Yesssss. The Anthem! Chaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahmpionsssss!!!

2 mins to kickoff: Porto fans doing some scary call and response business with the PA. No English team has ever won here, as we've been told 8,764 times in the past fortnight. But still, it's a precedent, no?

0:00 : AAAAnd we are underway. Our friends at ESPN2 confirm the bit about Ferreira not being in the stadium.

1 min: No HD tonight?

2 min: A clever build up from United ends with a Rooney cross cleared by a Porto noggin. Berbatov recovers the ball, but is ultimately dispossessed.

3 min: Free kick for Porto from 30 yards and an angle.

Hulk is the man who has a go-- skips low and into van der Saar's gut.

4 min: Lopez runs at the United defense... Ferdinand prevails, but Porto look to be their old attacking selves from the first leg.

6 min: Nothing was happening.. then Ronaldo scores from 40(???) yards out!!

Tommy Smyth says 35 yards. So 40 it is.

United 1, Porto 0 (United 3, Porto 2 on agg)

9 min: Anderson and Lucho Gonzalez, Porto captain and form United player, collide on the Porto side of the halfway line. Lucho prevails in the writhing contest.

10 mins: Tommy Smyth Wisdom: United have been hurt by the absence of Rio Ferdinand.

11 min: Porto looking about us stunned as I feel. Most of the play is in the middle third.

12 min: Lasagne Boy Carrick tries his luck from just outside the 18-yard box. Alas, he is not Ronaldo and it's a goal kick.

But United are right back in. Rooney's swinging cross falls on vacant green.

15 min: United are playing games with Porto in the midfield. Congested, as Rooney and Berbatov are both dropping back. Still, United tap dance around.

17 min: Carrick's run is halted by... Ronaldo, who'd drifted in... Porto take possession, but Cissokho throws in a weak cross for van der Saar to collect.

18 min: Carrick is down with a nick. Why? Cos Ronaldo stomped on his foot on the way up the field before.

18 min: Scholes getting warm.. just in case.

20 min: Lopez brought down by Carrick 25 yards out. Free kick for Porto.

Alves takes it...

...and licks one about a yard or so wide of van der Saar. Daaamn. Boy kick ball hard.

22 min: Getting chippy in the midfield. Anderson in none to pleased with a Lucho tackle.

24 min: Porto with some possession, but only on the perimeter. Attacking throw.

25 min: Lopez tries to bicycle boot one past van der Saar.. this is made more difficult by Ferdinand, who shoves him to the ground as he turns. No whistle-- a theme for the night?

26 min: Porto midfield starting assert themselves. Still, no REAL chances. Speculative through balls all cut off by the Vidic-Ferdinand Axis.

28 min: a weak clearance/pass from Giggs gives up possession. Porto counter with an awkward cross to Hulk, who's waiting in the box. The ball skips through his legs, and United take a clearance.

29 min: Lucho is down for the count. And as per usual, with (seemingly) real injuries, there was no contact. Just and awkward kick and slip. He's gripping his knee... we'll see. Either a torn ACL or he's back in 10 seconds. Ten months or ten seconds. That's the rule for footy injuries.

30 min: Berbatov lays one off for Ryan Giggs, who doesn't miss by much. United now pressing for a second.

Rooney playing behind Ronaldo at this point...

31 min: Gonzalez on for Lucho, who is, apparently, actually injured. United's luck.

33 min: and our esteemed announcing tandem do their best apologies for Giggs outrageous PFA nomination. He's a sub, shit.

35 min: Old Onion Man points out that, with all the players gone to ground, it must be slippery. That, and it's definitely Portugal.

35 min: I'm not just lazy/stupid... there's not much going on in the way of chances. Spoiled by yesterday? Perhaps.

38 min: Rooney is limping and Lingering is whining. All is right with the world.

38 min: OOOOoooh see that? Metataaaaarsal, eh??

39 min: Helton comes out to challenge Ronaldo near the touch line... ends up kicking it out for a corner...

Carrick receives the corner, then shoots into a crowd of United players. Happily, Macheda is not there to re-direct.

Seriously, as great the first Macheda winner was, the second could've been the work of a heavy traffic cone.

41 min: The cards are finally out... as Vidic sees YELLOW for scything down Rodriguez. Free kick...

43 min: Hulk flies a weakass balloon into vdS's arms. United counter... Ronaldo is pulled down just outside the box. He earned one there... but it's a corner.

44 min: Giggs corner is flicked on by O'Shea to Vidic who slides and puts a golden opportunity into the stands.

45 min: 2 mins until my halftime burrito.

45 + 1 min: Ronaldo free kick is floated across the box, where Porto take over...

45 + 2 min: A Lopez long-range effort is smothered by van der Saar. Bruno Alves header from 10 mins back stands as Porto's best chance.

45 + 3 min: Giggs cross kicked, oddly, away by Porto keeper Helton.

HALFTIME.

First commercial is...

Heineken. Pure class. Chaaaaaaaahmmpiooooooons!

Now for 20 mins of Soccer.com and... wait, no Proactiv? That's next season I guess.

So advertisers think we are:

Beer-drinking, boot-buying, lawn-week murderers. Got it one-third right, I suppose.

Burrrittos!

(microwaving)

Meanwhile, halftime as well in London, where Le Arse lead 1-0, 2-1 on aggregate. Walcott is the goal scorer, so commence the buggery circles.

By the way-- anyone else get the email about the Macheda jerseys from WorldSoccerShop?

"Represent United's Newest Star Federico Macheda" ...is their pitch. Mehh.

Not the best microwaved Chicken Chimichanga I've had, Jose Ole, not the best.

Chhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahmpions! (Never. gets. old.)

I will never get AT&T. That commercial was officious. Seduce a woman with two-word text messages? I'd need at least 3.

Back underway!!!

46 min: a downpour now in Portugal. Only going to get murkier on that pitch.

46 min: Berbatov played through by Rooney, but strikes one right into Helton's chest. Porto clear the lines.

47 min: Football in RAIN??? Certainly not, Tommy. Not suitable at all.

48 min: Miereles slices a wide-open chance from the top of the United box. Tails away and away and ends up with the fans.

50 min: Gonzalez-Meireles-Gonzalez-Hulk-Section 334 behind the United goal.

52 min: Meireles attempts to give Ryan Giggs the Heimlich near the center line. Giggs picks the ball up before he could have possible heard a whistle.. which comes, eventually. Of course.

53 min: Cissokho hip checks Ronaldo... free kick from 30...

Giggs with a taut, but ultimately lacking in pace ball into the box... Helton collects.

55 min: Meireles heads wide on a clever Gonzalez cross. He was marked, but still got a piece. End result: NIL.

57 min: Patrice Evra's face, meet Mariano Gonzalez. There Will Be (is) Blood.

Free kick for Porto. Dangerous spot, to van der Saar's left.

Hulk?

Bruno flying in?

Hulk rips one right into the Dutch keeper's chest. Cleared.

60 min: Rodriguez wheels around, but outside, the United defense. Shoots wide.

Evra ends up with a Yellow for the challenge that led to earlier free kick.. and the bleeding of his own blood.

UPDATE: Super Adventure Club 2, Villareal 0. That's that.

61 min: United looking for that second goal now. Berbatov follows a blind cross by whacking Sapunaru to the ground. Ref sees. Does No-thing.

64 min: Farias for Rodriguez, for Porto. Second substitute for the Portuguese. Rodriguez ran 7.15 km. So you know.

66 min: Ronaldo feeds Rooney into the right side of the box, his cross pushed out for a corner.

Giggs's kick is headed off into the stratosphere.

AAAnd back in. For another corner.

Giggs again...

Steered away. Anderson intercepts, but his pass back to Giggs is snuffed out. We're back into the midfield.

68 min: SO... QUESTION? Do United not have any TALISMANIC players? They are on pace to win FIVE trophies. Yet, still, no talisman. Strange, that.

69 min: Berbatov off for Nani

69 min: Rooney nearly bulls through the Porto box... ultimately cleared. But wow, great effort for England's best young temperamental Everton fan.

71 min: Vidic gets a foot on a long, low cross. United do not look impossible to crack. But not likely either.

Carrick has run more than 8 km. He must be tired. Or not?

73 min: United are letting Porto hangaround. Hangeeng around, hangeeng around.

74 min: Hulk dribbles down to the byline, then plants one into the side netting. Goal kick. Hanging around, but not doing much else.

75 min: Porto win a corner!!!!!!!

It's their first.. and it's headed a mile wide by the misfiring Bruno Alves.

76 min: Giggs and Rooney JUST miss running tap and go on the edge of the Porto box. That goes through to Giggs and it's Goodnight, Porto.

78 min: corner, another!, to Porto.

Anderson off for Paul Scholes. Both sides have now used 2 subs.

79 min: Kick floats past van der Saar, right onto Rolando's head... but... ahhhhhh, he put's it wide from just right of the post.

80 min: Sapunaru off for Tomas Costa. Last change for Porto.

81 min: Hulk long-range blast tipped for a corner.

Farias hooks on to it, but cycles over to put yet another Porto chance into the stands.

@umlaut yea, they're just playing for the long cross and header. Not the intense, driving to the net from the first leg...

83 min: Rooney tries his best impression of his teammate from 77 minutes earlier. Ball ends up in the ether.

85 min: United back the whole squad into the box and still Porto fly test balloons over the defense.

Nachhh!!! Porto's best chance of the night is a laser from yards out, right into van der Saar's chest.

Man United hanging on now...

87 min: United making in-roads now on the left. Giggs wins a corner. Tick tick tick

88 min: Giggs is your man of the match, if not for Ronaldo's singular moment. He's everywhere. PFA, hell yea!

89 min: Costa cross is muffed by Farias. Porto just cannot got a header on goal.

Twitchy bum time, regardless. Thanks, Mr. Rae, for introducing "twitchy" to the discourse.

90 min: Mr. Hulk slices another wide from just outside the corner of the 18-yard box.

Three minutes added.

90 + 1 min: Ronaldo with a clever low ball that Helton just nips wide. Another corner. United are looking like they're though. THEY ARE DEFINITELY GOING TO WIN.

90 + 2 min: Porto cannot get out of their own end.

90 + 3 min: Porto have one last rush...

...but nothing comes of it. Again. A failed header.

It's over in Porto.

Instand Postgame Analysis: Porto never had a chance. That United goal could've come in the 6th... or the 86th minute. United were always going to win. And "rotation hell" or not, they're probably going to win every trophy this year. When it matters, they buckle down.

Finally this evening, a big congrats to Lingering Bursitis. His midweek dream has been fulfilled.

Signing off. It's been a pleasure.

UNITED 1(3), PORTO 0(2)... MANCHESTER UNITED GO THROUGH ON AGG, WILL PLAY ARSENAL IN SEMI-FINAL, BEGINNING APRIL 29

Read more on "CL Liveblog: Manchester United v. Porto"...

Arsenal v. Villareal Match Preview

Not the injury keeping Marcos Senna out of the match.

There really isn't any chance today's tilt at Emirates can muster the magnificence of yesterday's all English tilt since there is no potential comeback for the ages at stake, but we could certainly see plenty of goals. Although, writing this will likely guarantee a dull 0-0 draw that sees Arsenal through to the semis on the back of their 1-1 away draw seven nights ago.

The storyline for this match is not about the players on the pitch, rather the players not on the pitch. Arsenal's lockerroom looks more like a MASH unit than the dressing room of an elite football club. Arsenal's already suspect defense will be missing its first-choice keeper Manuel Almunia, first-choice centerback William Gallas, first-choice fullback Gael Clichy, and defender Johan Djourou. Robin Van Porcelain is still struggling with a groin injury that may force him to a substitute role. Cesc Fabregas and Emmanuel Adebayor are just back from injury and are still likely not 100% fit.

Villareal's Yellow Submarine is not suffering from the same plague of injuries but will be missing midfielders Marcos Senna and Santi Cazorla. The former being a huge loss as the Brazilian cum Spanish defensive midfield dynamo was the goal scorer on the first leg. Senna is the rock in the middle with appreciable offensive skills and his loss will certainly be felt.

So, it's a leaky back line for Arsenal and soft middle for Villareal. It's like a battle between a chick with diarrhea and chick with a chubby belly. Which one would you rather have sex with?

Prediction. 2-2. Villareal through on away goal rule. If accurate, this would be the first time an English team has been eliminated from CL play by a non-English team in two years.

Read more on "Arsenal v. Villareal Match Preview"...

CL Open Thread

No Gerrard.

That's the biggest news of the day, if there is such a thing as most of the drama remaining is in tomorrow's two tilts. But we're theorizing this means Rafa is kind of tossing in the towel on the CL and saving Stevie for a run at the Prem. Makes Essien's day easier.

The line-ups:

Liverpool: XI: Reina, Aurelio, Arbeloa, Skrtel, Carra, Kuyt, Lucas, Alonso, Mascherano, Benayoun, Torres
Subs: Cavalieri, Dossena, Hyypia, Agger, Riera, Babel, Ngog.

Chelsea: XI: Cech, Ivanovic, Alex, Carvalho, Ashley Cole, Essien, Ballack, Lampard, Kalou, Malouda, Drogba.
Subs: To be announced.

Really, the site I pulled the Chelsea line-ups from does indeed have it TBA.

As for the other match, does it really matter? If Bayern Munich comes back to win that tie, I will eat a shoe.

Chime in as history (Istanbul) probably doesn't repeat itself.

Read more on "CL Open Thread"...

Champions League Preview: Revenge Mission.

Cue the music and the cheesy PlayStation graphics, and those ugly birds singing about Champions to promote crap beer. It's second-leg time in the quarters and boy oh boy, do Liverpool have a mountain to climb this afternoon.

Last week's 3-1 defeat at home to Guus Hiddink's rejuvenated Chelsea side was a bit of a surprise. A smash and grab. Liverpool have had a week to think about what exactly happened to them and they will have to go all out from the start this afternoon if they are to stand any chance of overturning the first-leg Saaaath Laaaaannnndan beat-down.

Team news after the jump.

Steven Gerrard was absent at the weekend with a groin strain but honorary Scouser and Merseyside overlord Rafa Benitez will risk his captain's fitness for such a big game. Liverpool will also have Javier Mascherano back from suspension.

********UPDATE**************

1838: Steven Gerrard has been spotted sitting in the directors' box at Stamford Bridge, wearing his civvies. The Liverpool skipper has been struggling with a groin injury but Rafa Benitez had been expected to risk him in this game.

*****************************

The Merseysiders certainly have goals in them at the moment: they walloped Blackburn at a canter last weekend and have scored an impressive 21 goals in their last 7 games.

The task in hand is HUUUUUUUGE but if any team knows how to mount a comeback, its Liverpool. Throwing caution to the wind will heap pressure on the Liverpool backline and they will need to defend like never before to stand a chance.

Chelsea will be without EBJT (England's Blubbering John Terry) due to suspension and will be missing injured, over-rated wing back Jose Bosingwa. Ricardo Carvalho should fill in for Terry. Chelsea (like Liverpool) have been free-scoring themselves recently. However, they did get a little scare at the weekend when they took their foot off the gas at 4-0 up at home to Bolton. The trotters scored 3 in short succession and nearly nicked a point. Bolton may have shown Liverpool the way to rattle Chelsea but I expect they will be careful and more respectful of today's visitors.

With the title out of reach I expect Chelsea to be focused on making the Champions League final for a second consecutive season. Not doing so will surely piss off Roman Abramovich and bring Russia's fantasy football guru to the brink of meltdown, and that's why I will be hoping Liverpool can do what seems to be the un-doable. That, and of course any Liverpool comeback will likely mean one hell of a decent game of football for all of us neutrals to enjoy.

The open thread will be up at 2.30 so stay with us for this one. It could be a cracker!

-Bigus.

Read more on "Champions League Preview: Revenge Mission."...

Autoglass speaks...

The busy Blues fan, Autoglass, took time out from his hectic gloating schedule to pen this missive from the road...

I’ve been traveling far too much lately. This week I found myself in Tampa when my beloved Chelsea came upon a critical Champions League tie at Anfield. Liverpool in the Champions League has become an April ritual. Those Blue and Red shirts are the crocuses of Spring. After the break, you get Autoglass’ Tampa travelogue.

I lived in New York for ten years. There, a Champions League session was two blocks away. Out and back in a scoot. There are twenty good football pubs in New York. Always one a short hop away. It spoils a guy.

I then moved to California. Still, options. More driving, but I watched John Terry cry not three miles from my office.

But I’m in Tampa this week and Chelsea visit Liverpool for a Champions League Quarter-Final. First, I needed to find a decent pub. That was easy. There is apparently exactly one. MacDinton’s is the clear choice. No disrespect to Tampa, but there is no second or third choice. If you’re in Tampa and any important match is at stake, just go to MacDinton’s.

By some miracle, my Wednesday afternoon was free work-wise. I cleared the time of any incursion, and made tracks for MacDinton’s. But late. I couldn’t get on the road until match time. I called Lingering Bursitis.

". Mate, you need to talk me in! I’m 15 mins from the pub!"

", I’ve got you covered."

We hang up. Not two minutes later, I’m on I-4 in Tampa and the phone rings…

"Fernando Torres, Liverpool’s number 9!" The bastard sings. Fuck. We’re behind and I’m not even there! Fuck! I know this movie. Liverpool rampant. Our season in tatters. Me at a strange footie pub pissing in my Guinness.

I make my way to MacDinton’s. Nice place in Tampa’s SoHo neighborhood (South Howard Avenue. Lame. But then, all such NoMaSoFoMoFu things are lame, even in New York.) They have free valet parking! And two outside bars with plenty of screens, pretty raven-haired Irish barmaids, and Florida sunshine. I settle in.

Outside sports bars. If you’ve been, you know. If you haven’t…it’s better than you are thinking. You really need to move somewhere warm…but you know that already, right?

Anyhoo, I settle into a lovely crowd. Red, Blue and hangers-on for Arsenal, United and, yes, Nottingham Forest... all in Tampa. (Bigus, the Forest dude convinced me that you are going down. I argued gamely for our Canaries. Up the City!)

At first, the lack of bile was unsettling. What is this Chelsea shirt doing chatting up this group of faux Scouse losers? Laughing? Enjoying the sunshine? Without trash talk and the ever-present electric risk of Glasgow kisses? Toto, we’re not in New York anymore.

Then, the match. Chelsea won going away. Rafa’s zonal marking left our Serb reserve fullback utterly unmarked for our equalizer AND our winner. Drogba then put in our third...the THIRD! (A third goal away in a Champions League tie is a heady thing, indeed) At Anfield. Hiddink ran out a 4-3-3 and ran at the Red back line. Liverpool were not up for it.

I wouldn’t have predicted it. Chelsea have been solid, but Liverpool have been the in-form side in Europe. My only hope was that Liverpool would return to Earth in this fixture. Oh, did they. They missed Mascherano massively. Essien utterly took Gerrard out of the match. Chelsea came forward in numbers. Ballack was majestic. Lampard, Kalou and, yes, Malouda were free in space and connecting.

Spring football can be a fickle mistress. Your club fights through the winter and find themselves, still, in 2 or 4 competitions. You’ve had your run and survived, sometimes even romped. But now, everything is running down to the quick. You come upon a bad run or injuries and - boom! - 7 or 10 days can take you out of everything. We’ve all been there. Hell, Arsenal has LIVED there these last five years.

Well, Liverpool woke up before this match right in the thick of the Champions League and in with a shout for the League. In 90 minutes, at home, they about crashed out of the CL and are left looking somehow farther up at United in the League. Devastating.

The best teams in Europe play 60 some-odd fixtures a year, and that’s beside their players’ international duty. Work, work, work, and then bad luck or bad form runs you out of everything in a sneeze. Brutal. Imagine the 2007 Patriots ruining three trophies with losses to three Giants. Ouch. Yet it happens every year in soccer.

MacDinton’s is a fantastic football pub. If you are in Tampa, look it up. Great crowd, velvety Guinness, and sunshine. Oh, and Chelsea won 3-1 at Anfield! Stevie G wandered by at the end looking for his pants! Carefree!!!!

Postscript: My favorite moment was meeting an Arsenal supporter wearing one of those “Kings of London” shirts. I got to say “That’s a really old shirt, isn’t it?” Get in.

Read more on "Autoglass speaks..."...

CL Quarterfinals Preview: Liverpool v. Chelsea

Yossi and the Crying Baby, by Bigus Dickus. Mixed Media, 2009.

For the fifth year running, Liverpool and Chelshea clash in the Champions League. Their meetings are becoming so commonplace that the fixture computer should just keep it going every year so as not to confuse anyone.

LFC had the run of the Blues for a while, but last year, the tide turned thanks to a first-leg gaffe at Anfield by that ginger nut John Arne Riise. This season, the first leg is at Anfield again, which prompts the question: who's winning this f*cking thing anyway?

With both teams in scintillating form, it's a tough one to call. Liverpool are blazing at the moment, playing with an attacking force and confidence that I haven't seen from 'em since the late 90s when the Fowler/Owen/McManaman show cast a spell over the Kop. Goals from all positions, sparked by the telepathy of Gerrard and Torres, and a thankful end to the miserable, cagey 1-0 squeakers that have defined the Rafa Benitez era.

Meanwhile, the Blues are finding their legs again too after seeing home form slump over Christmas. The prolonged absense of Joe Cole continues to be a problem, but there's enough dynamism in the midfield to give Drogba and Anelka all the chances they need.

I'm not looking forward to it, personally, but I am just too dazzled by my Reds to imagine any result other than a home win. Whatever the lads are siphoning into their Lucozade, it's clearly working. Maybe we'll get some of that Yiddish power from a still-not-100% Yossi Benayoun, but with him or not, I still fancy a 2-1 at home to keep things ticking along nicely.

The EPL is another story entirely. I pray for attacking football from both sides, and none of this shaky, tactical rubbish that normally plagues these fixtures.

We're about due for some more Terry tears.

Early Team News:
Mascherano misses the 1st leg through suspension, but everyone else besides Benayoun seems to be fighting fit.

Chelsea are without Bosingwa with hamstring-knack.

Read more on "CL Quarterfinals Preview: Liverpool v. Chelsea"...

CL Quarterfinals Preview: Manchester United v. Porto

We’re still not exactly sure what happened at Old Trafford on Sunday: Villa had played well enough for at least a draw, but then some 12-year-old Italian player making his debut smashed home the winner for United. (Hard for me to complain about Macheda getting poached from Lazio when Arsenal did exactly the same thing with Fabregas.) So what had initially looked to be a dreadful 48-hour turnaround for Man U turns into an opportunity to quickly continue their lucky streak today against Porto. And so the Manchester United Steamroller continues, while the rest of the world grumbles.

United are still without Berbatov and Ferdinand, but Rooney, Vidic and Scholes all return from league suspensions. It’s also expected that Park Ji-Sung will be in the lineup today. Porto have a few injury problems of their own, including captain Pedro Emanuel, and will rely upon Lisandro Lopez and Hulk (smash!) to create scoring chances.

Man U are saying all the right things about how they won’t take Porto lightly and how this is a difficult game, but if United don’t advance it would be a huge, huge shock. The only thing Porto have going for them is the return leg is at the Estádio do Dragão. But that hardly makes up for the fact that Porto has lost 10 out of their last 11 matches on English soil – and yes the one exception was when Porto won the Champions League, but Mourinho and 2004-era Deco aren’t expected to walk through that door. United, on the other hand, are working on their own record of 21 straight Champions League matches without a defeat. They’ll look to make it 22 today.

About the only chance that Porto have today is if they can impose their will on the game, if Man U’s defense is wobbly, and if Porto can capitalize on their few chances. It’s a very tall task for a young and relatively inexperienced team. So, I’m predicting a lopsided win today, let’s say 2-0 for United.

(And can someone please explain to me why this game is on live on ESPN2 rather than the more compelling Arsenal v. Villareal match? Oh right, it's because ESPN lurves Man U.)

Read more on "CL Quarterfinals Preview: Manchester United v. Porto"...

CL Quarterfinals Preview: Villareal v. Arsenal

There’s not much sense in hiding my bias on this one. The Arsenal come into today’s match unbeaten in 2009 (except for that loss in Roma) and, while there’s no chance of winning the Premiership, the season will be considered a success with a decent showing in the Champiiiiiions League and the FA Cup. The good news for Arsenal is that they are starting to get their squad to full strength. Although Eduardo, Abou “Always Injured” Diaby and Robin Van Persie are out today (and Arshavin is cup-tied), I would expect Nasri, Fabregas, Adebayor and Walcott to all start.

As for Villareal, they have lost Santi Cazorla for the season due to a fractured ankle. It’s a big blow for Villareal, who will miss Cazorla’s playmaking on the wings. On the plus side, Marcos Senna and Cani are fit. Up front, you can expect Villareal to rely heavily on defintely-not-American (turncoat!) Giuseppe Rossi.

The interesting storylines in this match are the return of Robert Pires to face his old club, and a rematch of that 2006 Champions League semi-final that famously saw Riquelme buckle under the pressure and flub his penalty kick. Riquelme has made buckling under pressure a bit of a hallmark and has since disappeared back home to Argentina. Meanwhile, Pires still pines for the Arsenal. I always liked Pires, and even though he was way too sensitive about that substitution in the 2006 Champions League final, it’s only because he truly loved the club. Can’t fault him for that, and I’m sure he will get a warm response from the Arsenal supporters (especially during the return leg in England).

Even though Arsenal come into this match as slight favorites and with the momentum, I don’t think it’ll be a proverbial walk in the park. Villareal are talented and determined, and have the ability to notch goals against Arsenal’s sometimes-flaky defense. So, I’m hoping for a 1-0 or 1-1 result for Arsenal today, which would set them up nicely for the return leg at the Emirates.

Just realized I spelled Villarreal wrong throughout this post.... But at least no one noticed!!

Read more on "CL Quarterfinals Preview: Villareal v. Arsenal"...

Fox Sports Makes Its Official Announcement Regarding Champions League Rights

As we have been predicting for some time now, today Fox Sports officially announced that it has won the rights to show the Champions League in the United States for the 2009/10 through 2011/12 seasons. We've got the official press release for your reading pleasure after the jump.

And, your intrepid reporter (heh) participated in a conference call this afternoon with David Sternberg, Executive Vice President and General Manager of Fox Sports International, and Roger Hall, CEO of Setanta North America.











Here are the highlights of the deal:

• Fox Soccer will broadcast both Tuesday and Wednesday games throughout the tournament across FSC, FSN, Fox Sports en Espanol and FX.
• There will be prime-time rebroadcasts of CL matches (nice for those of us at work during the week).
• Setanta will get second choice on a bunch of CL matches.

And here are the highlights of the conference call with Fox Sports and Setanta:

• Games will be split between FSC, FSN, en Espanol & final match on FX (Saturday game in HD). The exact split has not not been determined yet.
• There will be broadband video highlights on Fox Soccer's website, but Setanta will have full games on a ppv/tourny ticket basis. Setanta.com will relaunch in May 2009
• Did not divulge financial info.
• All FSN games will be in HD, and FSC HD will launch at end of 2009.
• No decisions on talent for production, but most likely it will be the on-site international commentary provided by UEFA. This is identical to the way that FSC broadcasts EPL games, where the feed comes directly from the EPL.
• Pre and post-game shows will be in LA, staffed with "the best talent available."
• Idea with the final on FX is to broaden appeal
• There is a good working relationship between Fox and Setanta, with joint programming acquisition, buying and selling of programming from/to each other.
• Fox Sports is closely connected with bSkyb, license and recruit personnel, communicate to find ways to coordinate. But rights to EPL games is separate process, so there is really no collaboration with bSkyb.
• Fox Sports is "very confident" on the next round of EPL rights acquisition. But, the current package extends through 2010 so bidding process will not begin until summer at the earliest.
• As far as expanding access to Fox Sports channels, the answer is essentially that they would love to get into as many homes as possible (the current number is around 40 million).

And here is the official press release:


Fox CL Rights PR

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I guess all we can say now is kudos to Fox Sports for solidifying their role as the leading source for footy broadcasting in the United States. Now, please just don't screw it up!

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ESPN Announces It Lost Champions League Rights In US, FSC = Wnrz?

UF has been chasing this FSC stealing the US Champions League broadcast rights from ESPN for some time now first reporting these rumors nearly two weeks ago and had them confirmed shortly thereafter.

It now appears that ESPN is announcing it did not win the rights. Noticeably absent was any statement by FSC proclaiming victory, only an unsourced declaration by the wire reporter that FSC wanted to wait until all the documents had been signed. While I'm sure this is true I still want to know why FSC is so tightlipped. I was wrong about the announcement last week, but I am still not sure what is holding it up because this news has really already lost its impact. A big press conference after all the documents are signed isn't going to do much, in my opinion.

Clearly, this is a big blow to ESPN's soccer expansion hopes. It remains to be seen if FSC and Setanta retain their respective EPL broadcast rights, but given ESPN's recent performances, it is looking rather unlikely for tWWL to be growing its business this way. To recap, ESPN failed to land UK EPL rights, and lost CL rights in South, Central and North America.

Have the big money bids for BCS and SEC college football games really wounded the mastodon that much? What's going to happen to the ESPN soccer people? MLS surely can't support all of them now.

UPDATE: Thanks to Georger in the comments we now know that the left hand and the right hand of Fox Soccer do not communicate very well as the AP report has been posted on Fox Soccer.

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