MLS To Portland Soon To Become MLS to Montreal?

I know MLS announced its intent to expand the league to include a Portland Timbers club back in March, but I keep getting this nagging feeling that this deal is far from being completed and looking more likely to fall apart than to come together, which may lead to the MLS going to Montreal instead of Portland. This may just be the pessimist in me or maybe I'm following this a bit too closely, but it is my suspicion at this time.

Why?

Well, let me explain, but bear with me because it's long and convoluted.

Let me get the bullet point summary done first and then explain later.

• No stadium deal in place.
• MLS is still talking to Montreal.
• The Portland Mayor and MLS supporter-in-chief is still embroiled in a scandal.

MLS STILL TALKING TO MONTREAL

It just so happened to leak this weekend that the MLS and the Montreal group the league unceremoniously dropped during the preliminary stages of the expansion bids for deigning to challenge the expansion fee and trying to negotiate it are still discussing expansion. Oh and don't forget, it has slipped that Paulson is only paying a $35M expansion fee instead of the $40M fee that was set in stone by MLS.

I know that MLS has talked about further expansion since this current round of expansion, but I think that is more PR spin to make the league look good than it is a reality for two reasons. First, the player pool isn't big enough to field quality teams for all clubs. Second, the economy.

STADIUM DEAL NOT IMMINENT

There still isn't a stadium deal in place. The Timbers and MLS want the current stadium to be soccer specific, which will require roughly $30M in upgrades. This would also necessitate the AAA Beavers baseball team to be moved. The rub is there is no stadium right now for the team in Portland. Building a new baseball stadium will cost roughly $40M-$60M depending on the situs.

No agreement has been reached on the location of the baseball stadium. The city and the Timbers originally wanted to build it in the Rose Quarter which houses the current NBA team facility, the Rose Garden, and the old home for the Trailblazers as well, Memorial Coliseum. The Rose Quarter is in the city core so it is a very enticing area. The plan was to tear down the old home and build a minor league baseball park. However, that plan went up in smoke when veterans and architects objected. Who knew architects were so powerful?

Now the plan is back to square one, which is building a ballpark out in SE Portland...a long way from the city core and certainly not as enticing. Merritt Paulson has also stated if the stadium is built out there his current agreement on guarantees of revenue to repay the bonds that will be issued to pay for the projects will be off the table.

One of the big selling points of the original agreement were the guarantees and commitments of Paulson on revenue and cost overruns. These no longer exist since the Rose Quarter deal is off the table.

I'm riffing off of the top of my head right now, but I believe that essentially leaves Portland with Paulson paying the $35M-$40M expansion fee and the rest on the City of Portland. I'm not clear on this, but Paulson may still be willing to guarantee revenue and cost overruns on the potential Timbers home, but not on any baseball related venture if the stadium is placed elsewhere.

I can tell you right now, given the history of public projects in the City of Portland, that deal will not fly whatsoever. Mr. Paulson is going to have to put up more than that or give up his baseball franchise.

MAYOR STILL EMBROILED IN SCANDAL

Mayor Sam Adams of Portland is still embroiled a sex scandal. The Mayor has been the supporter-in-chief for the MLS bid, but this scandal has really weighed him down. The vote to approve the initial agreement was only 3-2 and it was a tenuous vote. The scandal will no doubt affect future votes on potential agreements as well as the Mayor's political power has taken a hit.

The short story of this scandal is that the Mayor had a sexual relation with a young man while he was just a City Councilor. The age at the time the sexual relationship began is in question because the Mayor met the boy when he was only seventeen but he turned eighteen within a few months of the initial meeting. Moreover, the Mayor lied about the relationship during his mayoral campaign.

The Oregon Attorney General is investigating and a report is due soon. The rumors are that it will be released very shortly and that it is a matter of when, not if, the mayor will resign. That said, it's just a rumor about the import of the report. But, there is already a recall campaign against the mayor that will certainly be stoked even more by this report regardless of its content.

AND, LOCAL COLUMNIST WRITES HITPIECE ON THE TIMBERS ARMY

This last bit probably won't have too much impact on the MLS bid, but Oregonian sports columnist just wrote a little hit piece on the Timbers Army, the die-hard supports of the Timbers. He chided them for being vulgar and drunk and not helping the club selling "family friendly" entertainment. Nothing groundbreaking, but certainly not helpful in selling the deal.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Wow, I just wrote a ton, but what does it all mean? I don't know yet, but my gut has been telling me for a while that this deal is going to fall apart. I hate that because I want an MLS club in my town, but the politics and the money don't work in this deal right now. You might be able to get by without one of those working, but both? I don't see it happening.

I give the bid a 40% chance of succeeding at this time. I'm a terrible prognosticator, which is why I don't gamble (that and I'm cheap), but it just feels like the foundation is beyond repair at this point. I hope I'm wrong.

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Timbers Ticket Sales Underwhelming

Ticket sales for the inaugural Portland Timbers season in MLS do not seem to be going well. It was with much fanfare just three weeks ago that MLS announced Portland as its eighteenth expansion club. Portland’s strong fan support was one of the main reasons cited for granting Oregon’s largest city with a club. However, the famed Timbers fans don’t seem to be supporting the expansion bid with their pocketbooks as ticket sales are lagging.

Almost immediately after the March 20 expansion announcement, the Timbers began taking $50 deposits for the 2011 season tickets. The Vancouver Whitecaps expansion club announced March 18, slated to begin play in 2011 as well, accepted $50 deposits as well. Vancouver sold out its initial 5000 ticket allotment within 48 hours.

Portland’s sales have not gone as swimmingly. The Timbers front office is reluctant to release up-to-date figures, but does say that as of March 24 only 1,500 deposits had been taken by Portland—a far cry from Vancouver’s brisk sales. The team has also sold 1,000 Timbers 2009 season tickets, which also secure a 2011 season ticket deposit. The Timbers will not release more recent figures, but all told the club was 2,500 deposits short of Vancouver’s benchmark.

The organization is also aggressively marketing the 2011 season ticket deposits. Ads are appearing frequently on radio and internet noting that the first round of deposits will end April 30. Vancouver’s initial round is already closed.

Granted many fans may not be willing to fork out $50 now in a bad economy when there will likely be future opportunities to secure season tickets, this is certainly an inauspicious beginning for Merritt Paulson and the Timbers. They are already confronted with a $15 million hole in funding for the entire expansion. A recent Bloomberg News report also details the many difficulties Paulson will have in finding the additional funds. Local blogger Jack Bogdanski is also hammering the financial proposals by Paulson and the City and seems to be gaining some traction as the local daily has also cast a questioning eye towards the deal recently.

There is a long road ahead for Paulson and from the looks of it, the road could be more washboard than paved.

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So That $40M MLS Expansion Fee Was Negotiable

Remember when MLS first announced it was awarding two additional expansion clubs and that the price was going to be $40M for each club? Yeah, Montreal does, too.

It appears that despite pronouncements to the contrary the expansion fee was negotiable. Buried in this story about the Portland to MLS campaign missing one key ingredient--full funding--is the fact that Merritt Paulson, the Timbers owner, negotiated a discount on the expansion fee.

Paulson also paid a $35 million franchise fee to Major League Soccer.

Montreal's bid was kicked to the curb by MLS in November for attempting to do the same thing Paulson did--negotiating the expansion fee--only from the outset.

I wonder if MLS regrets this move after seeing the 55,000 fans for a CONCACAF Champions League match involving an USL club? I bet it does.

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Breaking News: MLS to Portland

While not confirmed officially, all signs are pointing to Portland being awarded the second MLS expansion bid on Friday. MLS has reserved a room at a local Hilton for a press announcement on Friday. Great news for yours truly since I live in Portland, but really not great timing since Portland will be hosting first round NCAA basketball tournament games on Friday for the first time in decades. But, whoever said MLS Execs were scheduling geniuses? Certainly not me.

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MLS Expansion Update

Yesterday, an unnamed source stated that Portland and Vancouver will receive the MLS expansion bids. It seems premature and MLS has hinted the decision may be delayed, but the Portland City Council approved a proposal yesterday for the Portland bid. It was the same deal detailed the other day with one huge difference. To secure the one city commissioner vote needed for approval, $15 million in funding from the city was pulled.

The amendment is a big deal out here, as many people have been up in arms that the city would put any money towards this deal when essential services are facing cuts due to the poor economy. It will at least buy some further support from the public. It remains to be seen if Merritt Paulson can locate the funds either privately or from another public source, but at least there is some public approval.

Of note, the local paper had a liveblog of the city council hearing about the MLS expansion proposal. The hearing started 9:30 in the morning and finished around 4:00 p.m. I'm not sure what that says about Portland. Either soccer is a big deal, this political issue is a big deal, or there isn't much news here. I'm going with the last one.

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UF Quick Throw: MLS Expansion

We have received word from an unnamed source that the next two MLS teams are Portland and Vancouver. Official word to come next week. Stay tuned!

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Quick Throw: MLS to Portland One Step Closer

The MLS to Portland cause has moved one-step closer to fruition. As of last night, Merritt Paulson, USL Portland Timbers owner, and the principal negotiator for City of Portland, Commissioner Randy Leonard, reached an agreement on paying for the stadium improvements. Paulson will come up with another $20 million or so and will guarantee much of the bond money the city is putting up for stadium improvements and pay for a portion of cost overruns.

Two more steps and Portland should have its very own MLS club. First, get a crucial third vote on the City Council to support the negotiated deal. Second, MLS chooses Portland. These are important issues, but given the nature and status of the other cities' bids and the new guarantees from Paulson the Junior, this will likely be one of the accepted bids from MLS. Now watch this be the jinx on this whole deal

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Quick Throw: Adios Miami

Breaking news on the MLS expansion front. MLS, FC Barcelona and Marcelo Claure have "jointly agreed" that Miami is no longer a candidate for an expansion club. Jointly agreed is like telling people you and your girlfriend mutually agreed to break-up. In other words, it's a lie because she broke up with you. Miami joins Atlanta and Montreal in withdrawing their bids, leaving St. Louis, Vancouver, Portland, and Ottawa to fight it out for the two spots.

Portland's task force is set to recommend today a proposal to the city council that would call for the Paulson bid to chip in an additional $20M, plus a personal guarantee on the bonds for stadium improvements. I imagine the expansion fee might also be in play now with demand slowly drying up.

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More Evidence of the Burgeoning South Florida Soccer Scene

This got hit in yesterday's Backpasses, but I just have to point out how it relates to Miami's MLS bid. As you know, wireless magnate Marcelo Claure and FC Barcelona are pairing up in an attempt to bring back MLS to Miami. One of the key elements is that the fans are there and the South Florida soccer scene is just exploding at the seams.

This video shows why the seams are bursting (please note The Miami Herald banner at the 1:20 mark):




Yeah, I can see why soccer is so popular in South Florida. Now they just need to get MLS to adopt the rule that allows for a bull on the field as an all time defender.

[Off The Post via Deadspin]

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Ljungberg: Another Great MLS Signing

Get used to this sight Seattle.

Freddie Ljungberg, underwear model extraordinaire, is the Seattle Sounders designated player signing. Undoubtedly, he will prove to be a sage acquisition that will help the Sounders reach above the depths of last place in its inaugural season. He will provide star power, skill and will be an ever-present. Or maybe not.

Ljungberg just went under the knife for a torn labrum and will be out 10-12 weeks. How did Ljungberg get this injury? I don't know. But, I do know he hasn't played since Euro '08. His former club West Ham bought him out prior to the start of the EPL (Suck it Barclay's) season.

If you recall another underwear model designated player signing started off his MLS career injury plagued. How's that one turned out?

Maybe Ljungberg is angling to get a loan deal with Sampdoria.

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If At First You Fail... Fail, Fail Again

It's probably the highest compliment to the now defunct Fire Joe Morgan that their blog name spawned a verb. Now, when we receive something epically dumb, someone around here usually offers to FJM it.

So yes, our theft of their schtick is pure flattery.

Anyway today we're going to talk MLS expansion. The collective UF is fairly ambivalent on most the cities up for a team. We like some places more than others, but we don't think there is any bid that should be trashed straightaway.

So with that in mind we give you this piece from the Orlando Sentinel on Miami's bid for a second MLS franchise.

Play along after the jump as we deconstruct Uncle Ed. And not that's not a euphemism (but it's also not a stone as I am well aware that I blog under the moniker of Precious Roy).

No matter where I go it seems every news article, blog or discussion board has a large group of haters just waiting to comment with something negative about a Major League Soccer team being awarded to Miami... and I wonder why?

Dude, that's so true. That shit also happens to me no matter where I go. Just today I was taking my morning poo, when suddenly a blog post that was full of negativity about soccer in Miami appeared out of nowhere. Blogs, articles, message boards, I can't get away from them. They're like Jehovah's Witnesses.

I'm guessing the author doesn't go anyplace besides the Internet.

Did someone from Miami treat them bad? Maybe their vacation in Miami was that terrible? Perhaps it was an ex-girlfriend from Miami?

This is either attempted humor, or the silliest list of motivations for writing about pro sports expansion ever put together. I've actually spent time thinking about it and I can't decide which it is.

Whatever the case I'm here to Finally confront these mere pathetic mortals with a little reality!

Are there immortals writing about MLS expansion? Anyway, most of the stuff I've come across has been deferential to the Miami bid, and almost solely because it has ties to FC Barcelona. The only thing I've read that raised concerns was a piece in SI. Here, this one. Now, granted my sample versus your sample isn't very intellectually compelling, but the onus is on you here. If you're arguing against the "haters" then you should probably establish that a) they exist and b) they are the majority of people commenting on the possible MLS bid in Miami. You didn't do either.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Folks, I'm sorry most of you live in Cold places

Where is Cold? I'm going to guess North Dakota. I bet that whole fucking state in under ice like 72% of the year.

If you turn "cold" from a proper noun back into an improper noun, then that statement is not relevant. It might also be false. The population shift in the US over the last 40 years is away from cold weather climes to warm ones.

Also, where can I get a random proper noun generator?

I'm sorry our women are beautiful

Also not relevant.

I'm sorry that one of the two new teams that will be part of Major League Soccer will be a team out of Miami.

Apologizing for things that have yet to happen? If this is something you will regret, but it hasn't happened, then shouldn't you instead work to make it not happen? That way you could avoid having to apologize.

Sucks to be you but thats just the way the cookie crumbles!

Boom! Scoreboard. You. Sucks to be us. Man, there is no recovering from that one. We're just going to stop right here. We've lost. And that cookies crumbles bit? You sir are like Shakespeare and Hunter Thompson, only combined into one person.

Sure, go ahead and comment about how the last team in Miami failed (It was actually in Ft Lauderdale)

The New York Giants play in New Jersey and sell out every game. The L.A. Galaxy play in Carson and lead the league in attendance. What's your point? That people won't go someplace to see a team that's different from the city that the team has in its name? My point is that I came up with two counterexamples without having to think about it.

go ahead and cry about how the fans didn't show up (In the last year of the Miami Fusion; attendance went up almost 50%),

Finally, now we've got data, or rather datum. But he's got a number to help back up his claim, and even better, it's accurate. The average attendance at Fusion games indeed jumped 50%. It went from two fans to three.

In 2000, the Fusion drew an average of 7460 fans. That was dead last—12th out of 12—in attendance, and the lowest number in the (admittedly brief) league history. The next season, when the Fusion had the best regular season record in the league, attendance jumped to 11,177. While a nice jump in absolute terms (and yes almost a 50% increase) it was still only good for 9th best in the league, and just slightly better than half of what league leaders D.C. United averaged in attendance (21,518).

Just for the sake of completeness, here are the Fusion attendance numbers (with the rank in parenthesis).

• 1998: 10,284 - (11th of 12)
• 1999: 8,689 - (11th of 12)
• 2000: 7,460 - (12th of 12)
• 2001: 11,177 - (9th of 12)

So the Fusion were last or next to last in attendance every year of their existence save one. That one year, they were pretty good. That more people come out to support a winner isn't the least bit surprising.

The two years they finished next to last, the only team below them was Kansas City. So Miami, a city with a metro area population of about 5.4 million people barely outdrew a city about 35% of its size (Kansas City is about 1.9 million people).

complain about the weather (I got nothing on that except it doesn't snow here and thats still great!).

Actually, it does snow in Miami.

No Stadium to play in? FIU's brand new stadium is there, regulation Fifa size and everything! Why all the complaining? Jealous people my friends, because when it gets down to it.... Where do most people want to go?

Because when it comes down to it... insert an ellipsis.

God I'm so envious of Miami with it's hurricanes and plastic surgery-addled population. Wait, I know how I'll get back at them, I'll write that they don't deserve an MLS team. By helping to keep a sport out of the area that nobody ever attended the first time it was there I'll have my revenge. Bwa ha ha ha.

That works best if you envision me screaming it with a Herbert Lom as Chief Inspector Dreyfus eye twitch. Anyway I certainly hope the author is kidding because that's one of the three dumbest arguments I've ever heard in my life.

Let me see some hands...who wants to go to Canada?

Let's play along... I do. Vancouver is absolutely beautiful. One of the better cities in North America.

Anyone for St Louis?

Eh, I've spent a few nights in St. Louis. Not a preferred destination, but I can think of worse places to be exiled.

Portland?

Another great city. Totally livable. Good people. If you gave me a good job in Portland, I'd move there tomorrow.

Atlanta?

I'll pass. I'm not too big on sprawl. But if hot babes is central to your argument, Atlanta grades out well in that department.

Ok, ok, Miami, Florida anyone.

Been there twice. It was okay. But if I never went back it wouldn't bother me in the least bit. Plenty of places have nice weather and hot babes. Miami is not particularly special in this regard.

The argument here seems to be: I like Miami, so they should have an MLS team. Me? I like Sydney. So they should have an MLS team. I also like Reykjavik. Can we put one there?

So why will it be different this time? Deep pockets! Miami Fusions last owner didn't have them and wasn't willing to stick it out

Miami's last owner was a guy named Ken Horowitz. He was an early investor in the wireless industry. He co-founded Cellular One and purchased cell phone licenses for central New York. He then sold 1.3 million potential customers to Southwestern Bell. For his troubles, he pocketed $250 million according to this article here.

I'm not sure about any of Horowitz's other investments, or how much he made in all of his wireless business, but a quarter of a billion dollars seems like plenty deep pockets for MLS in the late 90s.

so it wasn't the fans that failed the team, the fans were there.

No they weren't. Back up a couple of sections if you missed that.

If the MLS could take it back I'm sure they would have kept Miami because of Location, location, location. Thats why they always wanted to come back.

So nobody was really going to games, and the Fusion (or the Fusion's share in the league as the league owns all the teams) were probably hemorrhaging cash because of it, so they folded up shop. But that was actually a mistake because, hey what nice weather, and check out that cans on that bimbo.

The difference today is that Barcelona of Spain is one of the investors.

Not to be confused with Barcelona of Utah. I'm assuming he means F.C. Barcelona as I don't think the municipality of Barcelona will be investing in MLS.

It probably does make a difference that FCB, as opposed to some wireless tycoon—oh wait, that's the co-investor this time around—wants to get in to the league, especially from the league standpoint. In fact that alone might be enough for MLS to want to go back to Miami. How can they pass up the opportunity to have FC Barcelona invested in the league? But what, beyond the name, is Barca really going to provide? I don't mean that rhetorically. What have they committed to that will make this substantially more appealing both to the league and to the fans? Despite having an enormous fan base in Southern California, Chivas de Guadalajara providing the name as part of their ownership in MLS hasn't been a boon to popularity for the American side as Chivas USA is 8th (of 14) in average attendance (see the SI article linked above). That lags about 11,000 fans per game behind their cross-venue rivals, the Galaxy. Certainly some of that difference can be attributed to the presence of David Beckham, but it's still eighth.

The difference today is that Soccer in this town is being played more then ever! In every park, empty lot, back yard, kids, adults, animals, you name it! They are all playing the game.

People are playing soccer (sorry, Soccer) in kids? Okay, parallel structure issues aside, if you can quantify the purchasing power of pets in Miami, and give me an estimate of how much of that is likely to be spent on MLS, I'd be interested in hearing that.

We have a large support group in the Miami Ultras Fan Club, (Go and join!) We have Soccer academys from Homestead to the Palm Beaches! Things are better organized.

That doesn't mean people will go to games. It might help things be better if the MLS goes back, but better is relative. Will they jump from next-to-last to next-to-next-to-last in attendance?

When the news comes in January; I'll be very surprised if Miami doesn't get a team. Shocked is the word.

I thought "Grease" is the word. Okay, I'll flagellate myself for that. In any event, if it's going to shock you then MLS certainly must give it to Miami. Best argument I've heard yet. Sarcasm.

At the end of the day Miami is where its going to be.

That sentence makes me want to stab you. And I'm a pacifist.

Because if you ask any player in the world, where would you want to play if given a choice in the USA? It would be Miami.

I'm resisting going back to sic this thing up. I'm thinking that if I asked any player in the world where they'd want to play in the USA very few of them would say Miami, primarily because Miami doesn't have a team. Even if it did, I'd wager a good percentage of players would say New York or L.A. Shit, you pay a player enough, you can make them want to go anywhere, even Columbus.

If you haven't already Go to the Miami FCB website and check it out! Become a fan, reserve your seats!

So the argument never got more sophisticated than: I like Miami, ergo MLS should put a team in Miami. Oh, and reserve your seats. So that makes this either the least logically compelling thing I've read this calendar year or the worst piece of thinly veiled public relations propaganda I have ever read. And I worked in the music industry, which is overpopulated with the illiterate. So, it's a tough choice.

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Portland's MLS Expansion Bid - An UF Field Trip

Yesterday, Timbers supporters packed the City of Portland Council Chambers donning club colors and scarves as MLS and Merritt Paulson put on its dog and pony show for the City of Portland. It was the first meeting of the MLS Soccer/AAA Baseball Task Force, a group of private citizens who were selected to sift through Merritt Paulson's proposal to bring MLS to Portland and eventually provide a recommendation to the City Council before March 2009, the deadline MLS has set for the expansion bids.

The Merritt Paulson and MLS presentations were long on bromides and short on substance. The proposal, according to Paulson whose wife gave birth only the day before, will have a positive economic impact on Portland and enrich the community. He warned that public funding was necessary and this would be Portland's one chance at getting an MLS club. But, Paulson evaded a task force member's question on whether the Paulson family would individually guarantee the revenue that would be used to pay off bonds to finance the upgrades.

MLS Commissioner Don Garber put in his two cents saying MLS wants to come to Portland, although he probably tells this to all of the bidders. He praised Portland's passionate fanbase as evidenced by Timbers supporters grumbling at any suggestion that they would support and watch the Seattle MLS expansion club. Garber also noted that MLS did not consider the lack of local Fortune 500 companies to be a detriment to Portland given the "national" presence of MLS mentioning the Rio Tinto sponsorship in Salt Lake, although that was probably not the best choice considering Portland's political leanings the Rio Tinto's track record.

Garber again noted that PGE Park needed upgraded facilities and that only one of the MLS soccer specific stadiums was completely privately funded saying most were public/private ventures. The current proposal calls for only public money to upgrade the facilities of a publicly owned facility.

The one piece of new information came from Garber who indicated MLS is going to announce a "game" at a soccer specific stadium that will attract international attention to highlight the benefits of a soccer specific stadium. Garber gave no other details.

Mayor-elect and current council member Sam Adams appears supportive of the attempt to bring MLS to town, but cautioned that there is much work to be done in securing a development agreement and financing. Mayor-elect Adams acknowledged the current economic climate makes such a proposal difficult.

City Commissioner Randy Leonard also was supportive of the proposal so long as the proposed moving of the AAA baseball team is moved to the Lents neighborhood an area he has represented for many years.

The Task Force will meet bi-monthly until the March deadline, although it certainly won't have the attendance of this initial meeting. I will try to attend some of these meetings.

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