What a difference three weeks makes

Keown, seen here practicing his lines for Match of the Day 2

In the pantheon of absurd punditry, we must now give a special place to former Gunners defender Martin Keown, for his wonderful thought process that landed in today's Daily Mail.

You see, he's been watching Liverpool's recent run of good form (deliberately downplayed so as not to ire the vengeful soccer gods), and he's sussed out the main reason why they're not only playing well, but the reason why he reckons they'll win the league.*

Surprisingly, that reason is getting rid of Robbie Keane.

After the transfer window closed and Liverpool faltered, in no small part to the crazed, unprovoked, red-faced rantings of Rafa Benitez, the media was giddy, falling all over themselves to point to the absence of Keane as the cause for their downturn. After all, not scoring goals and suffering with injuries to Torres and Gerrard made the connection obvious.

But now that they're winning, Keown sees it very differently.

First, he approaches it tactically, you know, Xs and 0s:

"Keane was bought [for £20.3million] to play off Torres, but Gerrard was consequently pushed back into midfield which only stunted the effectiveness of their captain and contributed to a lack of fluidity. But Benitez's best team is now obvious.

Rafa's 4-2-3-1, with Gerrard pushed further forward behind Torres, is now a devastating system that maximises everything from the players he has at his disposal - as was demonstrated by the England player's superb hat-trick yesterday against Aston Villa."

Fair enough. So the Irishman's presence upset the balance of the formation? I could maybe see that.

Then, he attacks "the Keane question", aka the first thing that Rafa would inevitably have to answer after a 0-0 draw at home.

"Everyone seemingly knows their place within the squad. That clarity of thinking is at odds with Sir Alex Ferguson's United at present and I believe Liverpool will maintain this push and pip the champions because they are now playing with the belief that the Premier League title is in sight."

I think you've lost me there. After all, winning is generally the best cure for anything, Keane or no Keane.

So why post all this? It's a slow news day, the first of many now that we're in the international break. Keown's batty outburst reminds us all that when the news well runs dry, we're forced to turn to the pundits. Thankfully, they rarely disappoint.


* Again, not putting any editorial into this statement, for fear of karma

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What awaits in the Quarter-Finals?

How will the bastard fix this one?

Now that the CL Round of 16 is over and the dust has settled, we're ready for whatever's next. Platini can't have been happy that all 4 teams from that league he hates have made it through to the next round, which now gives him a week or two to figure out how to rig the draw.

We have a few ideas of our own after the jump. Who do you think will end up playing who?

Not surprisingly, we're all kinda envisioning some all-English clashes. Despite several efforts to figure out probabilities of 2 all-English QFs or no all-English QFs, I don't think we figured it out, so give us your best math professor impersonation in the comments. Sorry. We're just better at crass jokes.

Precious Roy:
Barca v. Porto
Bayern v. Villareal
Arsenal v. Chelsea (fixed)
Liverpool v. United (fixed)

Not bad. Entertainment with the Rafa/Fergie showdown, a London derby is always nice for ratings, while ze Germans get a soft draw and Barca get another plaything to bat around before advancing.

Spectator:
United v Porto
Barca v. Bayern
Arsenal v. Liverpool
Villareal v. Chelsea

Far more cynical, although the odds of United and Spartak getting the soft draw is rather high. Happens all the fucking time, oh, and with a Gooner/Scouse tilt, we'd be able to spend the week prior arguing over 500+ emails about the games. Get in.

The Fan's Attic:
United v. Bayern
Chelsea v. Arsenal
Liverpool v. Porto
Villareal v. Barca

Magic! A soft draw for the Scouse, United and Arsenal both mired in tough games, and a little La Liga reunion for the remaining Spaniards. The scoreboards shall all be festooned with 1s and 0s.

Autoglass:
Barca v. Porto
Bayern v. Villareal
Arsenal v. United
Liverpool v. Chelsea

The Blues fan envisions another go-round of the LFC/CFC bullshit that's bored the masses the last 4 years running. Meanwhile, Arsenal kiss goodbye to their CL hopes, and the other two promise to be walkovers.

Ian:
Arsenal v. Bayern
Chelsea v. Liverpool
United v. Villareal
Barca v. Porto

Fergie would shit his pants at this draw. They love running the score up on Villareal, while all their biggest competition will invariably scrap the other matches to death, leaving him to defeat the pallid remains. HOPE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN.

u75:
Bayern v. Liverpool
Chelsea v. Villareal
Porto v. Barcelona
United v. Arsenal

This outcome would make Georger's head explode. Who would he root for?

The NY Kid:
Arsenal v. Porto
Chelsea v. Liverpool
United v. Bayern
Barcelona v. Villareal

Christ, can everyone stop predicting Chelsea/Liverpool? Oh, and it figures he gives his team the easiest draw.

Lingering Bursitis:
Chelsea v. LFC
Arsenal v. Barcelona
Porto v. Bayern
United v. Villareal

Doomsday. The Arse/Barca would be good for a few goals (reckon Arsenal would win that one, ultimately), the Germans are safe, United are safe, and I get to relive my recurring nightmare of John Arne Riise and his awful, awful header.

The Likely Lad
Arsenal v. Chelsea
Man. U. v. Bayern
Liverpool v. Villareal
Barca v. Porto

This is more my dream draw than any real prediction. Arsenal/Chelsea would be like the Iran/Iraq war, we could just root for carnage. The Man. U. matchup with Bayern would be fun a)cos either Man U. or the krauts would be knocked out and b)cos we'll get to see all the old school footage from the 99 CL final. Liverpool will dickstomp Villareal, allowing me to crow on about how the Rojos should just pack up and play their league ball in Spain. And finally, I want Barca to win this bitch, and while Porto are no walkovers, I think it's a good matchup. Fin.

Thoughts from y'all? The commenter who gets the most correct will win something. A soccer book or somethin'.

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A rather hasty CL Preview

Who is more intelligent: Sepp, Gordon Brown, or the balls they're holding?

As noted in a previous post, the CL groups are ready to go, and things will begin in an hour or so. I made my predictions way back when, but now it's everyone else's turn to estimate who's going through to the knockouts.

Has anyone picked BATE? Could anyone even identify Borisov on a map? We shall find out!



GROUP A:
Chelsea, AS Roma, Girondins Bordeaux, CFJ Cluj

One of the softest groups in the competition (thanks to Mr. Abramovich and his clever hidden network of payoffs), and we almost have a consensus amongst the group. It will be Spartak London and AS Roma advancing through on a landslide, if not for the nationalistic myopia of resident Frenchie, The NY Kid. He is confident that Bordeaux will make it to the next round, where they'll almost certainly lose anyway. The French sure do love the agony of delayed heartbreak.

GROUP B:
Inter Milan, Werder Bremen, Anorthosis Famagusta, Panathanaikos

This is the group with by far the best names. Mourinho should suffer no such Anorthosis in waltzing past the rest, and we all agree: this is an Inter Milan group through and through, except for Precious Roy, who has the Greeks gutsying past 'em for the group win (unless that was a mere formatting issue in his email; it could swing either way).

Behind that, a whole mess of questions. Bremen's an unknown quantity, and you never know what you're going to get from a Greek side. It's either a 1-0 win or a 5-1 defeat. Thusly, such confusion spread to the UF braintrust, as opinion split 50/50 between the bruisers from Germany, and the defensive boredom brought by Panathanaikos.

One thing we could agree on: Famagusta have less chance of qualifying than Chinese Democracy has of topping the charts.

GROUP C:
FC Barcelona, Sporting Lisbon, FC Basel, Shakhtar Donetsk

Another slew of unpronounceables. Everyone picked Barca and Sporting, to the surprise of no-one.

GROUP D:
Liverpool, PSV Eindhoven, Olympique Marseille, Atletico Madrid

Tons of intrigue here, at least in possible storylines, but not with UF when it comes to boldly proclaiming that LFC will live to canter another day. Beyond that, a lot of variety (well, as much variety as having three teams to choose from could bring).

The NY Kid once again exhibited his unflinching loyalty to that most uninteresting of leagues, selecting Olympique as his group runner-up. u75 went to another uninteresting league for his pick of PSV, whereas the rest preferred the flair of the other Madrid.

This is definitely the wrong group to bet money on.

GROUP E:
Manchester United, Villarreal CF, Celtic, Aalborg BK

For every Russian string-puller, there's also a gum-chewing Scottish contingent hell-bent on rigging the odds in their favour, and it comes in this absolute cake of a group. 2 teams in Celtic and Villareal that they've played (and dispatched of handily) in the Champions League, and then a team from Scandinavia, which might as well translate to "6 points" in English.

Thusly, no-one of the crowd displayed the testicles necessary to pick away from the crowd, as Manchester United and Villareal are the ones with the golden tickets..... EXCEPT ONE. (can you see where this flimsy conceit is going yet?)

The NY Kid, bold and perhaps stupid, feels Celtic can shimmy and glasgow kiss their way past the La Liga outfit to claim a sacrificial lamb place in the next round. If he displays any more outliers, I'm going to have to assume he's picking at random. If there's a BATE pick in there, I might have to step down as a blogger and as a human being.

GROUP F:
Olympique Lyon, Bayern Munich, Steaua Bucharest, Fiorentina

Well, there's a French team in here too, but thankfully everyone else picked Lyon and Bayern to cruise on, so no NY Kid joke in this one. Phew.

GROUP G:
Arsenal, FC Porto, Fenerbahce, Dinamo Kiev

Arsenal are gifted passage into the next round by virtue of the fact that a. they're a good side and b. just about every UF staff member is a Gooners fan. The 50/50 split beyond that is for the Portugese and the Turkish, which makes me almost want to go back and pick Kiev just so they don't feel left out. It's only the kind, NY Kid-esque thing to do.

GROUP H:
Real Madrid, Juventus, Zenit St. Petersburg, Bate

Mercifully, a rather soft group to close out. Lots of squabbling about the 1-2 order, but almost everyone has Real and Juve so it's immaterial. The Fan's Attick fancies the Russians (as does our favourite prognosticator, The NY Kid), and to be fair, they're a stylish pick right now having dispatched of Man U in the SuperCup. However, Liverpool just beat them, thus neutering the impact and significance of Zenit's performance a little bit. Still, it'd be nice to see one of the juggernauts fall, especially either one of these two snooty collectives.

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So there you have it. Close to 1000 words (probably), and yet no closer to figuring out who's winning this bloody thing. I mean, we can't be that bold, can we?

(Of course, I am picking LFC, instantly making me several notches worse than NY Kid on the guessing game scale)

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Fun with Punditry

The new Boy Band debuts... meet Bland in Demand: Shearer, Lawrenson, Lineker and Hansen

[Far be it for me to imitate Fire Joe Morgan, but let's face it, there's so much FJM-ing to be done in the futbol world]

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Alan Hansen, come on down! You've been writing a regular column for BBC Sport for some time, and yet your imagined New Year's resolution to make sense when you write/talk is already showing signs of failing.

Today, your Carling Cup semi-final preview gave us just enough of your heady journalistic blend: a teaspoon of technical knowledge, a pinch of prediction, and a gallon of complete aimlessness. Sure, the Carling Cup isn't that prestigious anymore since it became swamped with branding and the Sir Alex-led practice of putting out 2nd XIs throughout the competition, but make no mistake, Hansen's got his finger on the pulse:

"But when you get to the semi-finals and there's a place at Wembley at stake, then suddenly it becomes a much bigger competition. The players involved on Tuesday and Wednesday will certainly be feeling that way."

Genius. The competition becomes more important, the closer you get to actually having a chance to win it!

But there's more. Hey Alan, what can we expect from the Everton v. Chelsea encounter?

"Don't forget that Everton have already drawn 1-1 with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge this season, so there will be no question of David Moyes's side going into the game with any fear. It will be a lot tighter than a lot of people are expecting."

Brilliant insight! I was fully expecting a 7-0 whitewash, statistically defiant in the face of current form, injuries and the results of previous fixtures.

Regarding Arsenal v. Spurs, Hansen offers several other, utterly useless nuggets of insight:

"If, as we expect, Arsene Wenger perseveres with his policy of playing the youngsters and reserves and Tottenham play their full-strength first team, then you'd expect Spurs to win.
But then again, you might have thought that last year.
On paper, Spurs should have won those games, but the kids at Arsenal are no mugs and should not be taken lightly. I don't think Spurs will make that mistake this time around."

Dare I ask the expert for a score prediction?

"Ultimately, if Spurs defend properly then they've got every chance, but if they play poorly at the back as they have done at times this season, then there's nothing there for them."

Amazing. If Spurs prevent Arsenal from scoring, they themselves have a chance to win. But, if they defend badly, they will lose.

It's a frequently-witnessed event in punditry: the column that meets word count targets and yet fails to deliver any information that isn't common sense or plainly obvious. Everton/Chelsea is apparently too close to call, whereas Spurs' hopes of victory are directly connected to their ability to defend properly.

Alan Hansen was a tremendous player for my mighty Reds. He defended with aplomb and tenacity, and yet, any effort he made to push forward and dribble the ball frequently ended in disaster and embarrassment.

I dare say Hansen's record with the written word is following this same trend.

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