We're having a hard time getting up for today's Champions League final. Why? Well, some of us have crippled livers that don't detox as efficiently as they used to. Some of us are sick (physically, that is) or bordering on it.
But almost to a man here, we're filled with a little dread. United seem to be the favorites, meaning they repeat as club champions of Europe and pull a quad (not a muscle).
Given our varying allegiances here—everyone but United—an overt fear of the inevitable has put a bit of a damper on today's festivities.
But fuck, this is the Champions League Final. And Barca are going to roll out Lionel Messi, Samuel Eto'o, and Thierry Henry. It's not like Fulham is going out there to line up and roll over for this supposed United juggernaut.
Oh, and did I mention that Fulham beat United the last time they played? Well I just did. Maybe as telling: in a two month stretch across December and January, United dismantled relegation candidates Sunderland, Stoke, Boro, and SF Bolton all by the impressive scoreline of 1-0. Add another 1-0 win over mediocre Wigan in that span and you've got a team that can be positively average on any given game day.
And remember if Porto could have managed to either bury just one of the two near-sitters they missed at Old Trafford or simply to score at home, then United are out in the quarters. And we're talking about an Arsenal v. Barca rematch (indulge me, okay).
Sure Barca had some slips, but they also have a front line that put in 19, 23, and 29 league goals between Henry, Messi, and Eto'o. That's three more goals than United managed as a squad. So why the hell does everyone think United are such heavy favorites?
Ninety minutes. Maybe 120. Then possibly a lottery of sorts. But it will be decided on the pitch.
After the jump Lingering Bursitis tells you why United will prevail. Then I debunk their chances with unassailable logic.
Why Manchester United Will Win
Where There is Rooney, There is Fire: As talismanic as Lionel Messi is for Barca, there is a similar figure in red for Fergie's men, and his name is Wayne Rooney. With his workrate, confidence, energy and tenacity, Barca will invariably struggle to contain the multi-faceted United attack.
Rooney is the high-octane trigger for Ronaldo and co, and if he finds himself with room to operate across the final third (I'd expect Barca to try and man-mark him), he will be difficult to stop. And if they stop him, it'll leave someone else open.
Barca's Backline: No Marquez, no Alves, and a barely-there elder stateman in Carlos Puyol. Throw in a couple more physically-adept, not-so-tactically-sound stand-ins, and you can almost see the goals piling up before a single ball has been kicked.
As cautious as Sir Alex might well choose to be in this, a major European final, it's not inconceivable to see him releasing the hounds upon that patchwork defense.
They're Manchester Fucking United: Of all the teams in all the leagues across the globe, you'd be hard-pushed to find a single one as blessed as United. Whether it's generous refereeing decisions or downright piss-poor game-calling, United are rarely on the receiving end of rough justice. Why should the CL Final be any different?
For proof, look at last year's final; their luck on the pitch was shared evenly with Chelsea, but in this most team of team games, they were lucky to have the greed of John Terry on their side. After all, with other penalty specialists in the side, it was EBJT who begged for the final shot, and slipped and scuffed his teary-eyed way into soccer history.
Why Barcelona Will Win
Massimo Busacca: That's the ref. He officiated the 2007 UEFA Cup final where he sent off Moises Hurtado on a second yellow, the first of which came in the 18th minute on something between an Al Haig (i.e. "I'm in charge here") and a Nuke Laloosh ("Announce my presence with authority").
He's going to do it again and card the first defender to make a slightly less than borderline challenge. And my money is on Vidic to be the perp of such a foul. Vidic does it weekly in England, so it's a safe bet. But Busacca isn't an EPL official (he plies his trade in the Swiss Super League), so he's less likely to let it slide because of the jersey color. An early yellow changes the dynamic of how the United backline plays. Moreover, Busacca's not afraid to flash red no matter how big the match (having done it in World Cup quarter as well).
The Forecast is for Rain: Remember that slip by Kieran Gibbs in the semi return leg that led to Arsenal's collapse and a bit of a walkover for United. Yeah, well the fates are sick fucks with the cruelest sense of humor. Expect a United player to similarly slip—please God, let it be PFA Player of the Year Ryan Giggs—and gift a deciding goal to the Catalans.
Cristiano Ronaldo is an Enormous Douchebag: If there is a God, he is aware of this fact. Eventually he has to intervene and stop this giant twat from winning more trophies. That day is today.
